Code Orange

Is someone reading my blog?

About the only things we know at this point are that Ohio State will play in the BCS title and Hawaii will be in the Sugar Bowl. Past that, it’s about anyone’s guess.

This is how I think things will break down: despite the calls by TV people to jump LSU up from 7th to 2nd in the BCS (which would mean jumping both the teams who lost today, but also Georgia and 1-loss Kansas, who didn’t play, as well as Virginia Tech who won the ACC Championship game), I think Georgia will slip into the #2 slot in the BCS title game.

I think there is just too much of a hill to climb for LSU, and especially since they didn’t look all that great against Tennessee, I don’t see why pollsters would intentionally move them higher than normal in order to influence the BCS. If they did that for anyone, I would think they could do it for Oklahoma, who just beat a good Missouri team for the 2nd time this season. In any case, I think it will be Ohio State vs. Georgia, though even if it is LSU, I don’t think it will affect the BCS Bowl matchups much at all.

Assuming this, this is where teams would go based on conference championship tie-ins:

Rose: Southern Cal vs. BCS
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. BCS
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. BCS
Sugar: LSU vs. BCS

*West Virginia has no automatic bowl tie-in

Kansas should almost certainly either be #3 in the BCS, or #4 with a BCS champion in the #3 slot. That will give Kansas an automatic berth into the BCS. Hawaii winning in conjuction with Boston College and Tennessee losing should guarantee them a spot in the top 12 and in a BCS Bowl.

After that, the remaining at-large spot can be filled by any team with 9 wins and in the top 14. My best guess is that the teams to choose from will be the following:

Arizona State, Illinois, and probably Clemson.

*Missouri and Florida are ineligible due to the 2-team per conference limit

Now, the selection process will go as thus:

Since the Rose Bowl will lose their Big 10 representative to the BCS title game, and that team will be the #1 team in the nation, the Rose Bowl will get the first pick. There was been speculation that the Rose Bowl will pick Georgia if LSU goes to the title game. Since I think Georgia will be in the title game, that scenario would go out of play, but lets say LSU is chosen instead, there are two reasons why I don’t think the Rose will pick Georgia:

1) Illinios should be eligible for the BCS, and given that the Rose Bowl gets irked whenever they can’t get their Pac 10/Big 10 matchup, I don’t see why they would pass on the opportunity to have it, and

2) This is a rather complex sounding rule so hang with me: If two bowls lose the teams with automatic conference tie-ins, which would be the case for the Rose and Sugar Bowls if the BCS title is Ohio State vs. LSU - then the first bowl can choose any team out of the at-large pool (and the at-large pool only - no other automatic tie-in teams) EXCEPT a team from the same conference as the other team in the title game without that Bowl with that conference tie-in’s permission. That means that if the Rose Bowl wanted Georgia for some reason, they would have to get the Sugar Bowl’s permission to release Georgia. I see absolutely no reason for the Sugar Bowl to do this.

So, I’m saying that regardless of how things shake out in the BCS title, the Rose Bowl will pick Illinois to face USC.

If LSU plays in the title game, the Sugar Bowl picks 2nd, and they’ll pick Georgia. If it’s Georgia in the title game, then the Orange Bowl picks 2nd, and most people seem to think that they’ll pick West Virginia to face Virginia Tech.

The next pick goes to the Fiesta Bowl. They’ll have a choice between Kansas and Hawaii - two teams who get automatic berths into the BCS. Most people believe that they’ll chose Kansas, because it creates an interesting intra-Big 12 game and they don’t want Hawaii.

The final pick would then go to the Sugar Bowl, who would be left with Hawaii.

That means here is how I project the BCS Bowls:

BCS Championship: Ohio State vs. Georgia
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. Southern California
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: Hawaii vs. LSU
Orange Bowl: West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech

If Hawaii for some reason doesn’t make the top 12 of the BCS, the Fiesta Bowl could go with Arizona State. If they stick with Kansas, the Sugar could go with Arizona State or possibly Clemson if they’re in the top 14.

Update 3:17 AM

Hawaii wins 35-28 and almost certainly earns a bid to the Sugar Bowl.

Update 3:08 AM

Aloha New Orleans? Hawaii takes a 35-28 lead on Washington with 44 seconds to go.

Update 2:49 AM

Reports of Hawaii’s death have been greatly exaggerated. They just tied Washington at 28 with 8:05 to go in the game.

Update 12:53 AM

It doesn’t look like the BCS is going to have to worry about where to put Hawaii. Washington will take care of the problem for them. The Huskies lead the Warriors 21-7 in the middle of the 2nd quarter.

Update 11:45 PM

Oklahoma wins the Big 12 Championship over #1 Missouri 38-17.

Update 11:38 PM

Oklahoma just put a cherry on top of the cake, going up 38-17 after kicking a field goal with only 3:42 to go.

Update 11:17 PM

Just do it. Seriously. Put Hawaii in the title game. If you can’t decide on which 2-loss team should play Ohio State, then either put Kansas, who is the only other 1-loss team, or stick in Hawaii, the only remaining undefeated team. Will anyone dare rank Hawaii #1 tomorrow if they win tonight?

Update 11:15 PM

Barring an amazing comeback by the Tigers, Oklahoma is going to cap the third top-two-double of the season as they go up on Missouri 35-17.

Update 11:10 PM

If you can believe it, before this weekend, the last time the #1 and #2 teams lost on the same day (and presumably the same weekend) was back on September 21, 1996. If the Oklahoma score holds up, #1 and #2 will have lost on the same day twice this season, and on the same weekend 3 times this season. The only good thing about the BCS title game is that both the #1 and #2 teams can’t lose - unless they aren’t actually playing (can anyone say LSU/USC?).

Update 11:01 PM

Missouri has to kick yet another field goal and it’s 28-17 Oklahoma with 14:51 to go.

Update 10:58 PM

Ohio State is going to the national title game. Pittsburgh defeats West Virginia 13-9. This is #13. The 13th top-5 teams who has lost to an unranked opponent this year.

Update 10:50 PM

West Virginia is able to get down to the Pitt 21, but is forced into a 4th and 17 and cannot convert. Pitt takes over with under two minutes to go.

Update 10:47 PM

Missouri is in deep trouble now as Oklahoma takes a two touchdown lead on them 28-14.

Update 10:40 PM

Oklahoma retakes the lead in the Big 12 Championship over Missouri 21-14.

Update 10:34 PM

Stanford defeats California 20-13.

Update 10:31 PM

Pittsburgh adds a field goal to take a 13-7 lead on West Virginia with only 6:17 to go.

Finals:

Florida International 38, North Texas 19

Update 10:11 PM

Richmond defeats Wofford 21-10 and they’ll play at Appalachian State in the I-AA semifinals next week.

Also, Brigham Young defeats San Diego State 48-27.

Update 9:51 PM

Missouri finally gets into the endzone with 14 seconds to go in the 1st half. It’s now 14-14 after Missouri converts a 2-point conversion..

Update 9:47 PM

Richmond is now up on Wofford 21-10 with 8:40 to go.

Update 9:43 PM

We may definitely be heading towards and Ohio State vs. Georgia championship game. Pittsburgh takes a 10-7 lead on West Virginia.

Update 9:37 PM

Oklahoma scores another touchdown as they go up on #1 Missouri 14-6.

Meanwhile, Richmond retakes the lead on Wofford 14-10 with 11:55 to go.

Update 9:17 PM

Wofford goes up on Richmond 10-7 in the 3rd quarter.

Update 9:15 PM

Pittsburgh gets on the board, and is now down West Virginia 7-3. Missouri is forced to kick a 2nd field goal, but it’s still 7-6 Oklahoma.

Update 9:02 PM

West Virginia finally gets on the board to go ahead of Pittsburgh 7-0 late in the 1st half.

Update 9:01 PM

Oklahoma goes ahead of Missouri with a touchdown. They’re now up 7-3 in the Big 12 Championship game.

Update 8:51 PM

Missouri strikes first as they kick a field goal to go up 3-0 on Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Arizona is up on Arizona State 7-0.

Update 8:31 PM

I’m sure this isn’t how West Vision envisioned their last game of the season - after the 1st quarter they’re scoreless with Pittsburgh.

Update 8:28 PM

Oregon State finishes off Oregon 38-31 in overtime.

Update 8:24 PM

Oregon/Oregon State doesn’t want to end. They went into overtime tied at 28. They now head into double-overtime tied at 31.

Update 8:11 PM

Southern California defeats UCLA 24-7, and wins the Pac 10. USC is going to the Rose Bowl against Ohio State or Illinios.

Meanwhile, Richmond goes ahead of Wofford 7-3.

Update 8:01 PM

Wofford goes up on Richmond 3-0 in the 2nd quarter.

Update 7:43 PM

Tennessee (specifically Ainge) made too many mistakes down the stretch as LSU wins the SEC Championship 21-14.

Update 7:37 PM

Tennessee tries to come back and gets down to the LSU 15, but Ainge throws an interceptions with only 2:42 to go.

7:19 PM

Tennessee turns the ball over for the first time in the game, and it’s a costly one as LSU returns it for a touchdown to take a 21-14 lead on the Volunteers with 9:54 to go in the SEC Championship Game.

Also, Nevada defeats Louisiana Tech 49-10.

Update 6:44 PM

Southern Illinois defeats Massachusetts 34-27 and will get Delaware at home next week in the I-AA semifinals.

Update 6:39 PM

Tennessee recovers only the 3rd lost fumble all year by LSU and then drives down the field to score a touchdown and retakes the lead 14-13 nearing the end of the 3rd quarter.

Update 6:35 PM

UMass is trying to come back, cutting Southern Illinois’ lead to 34-27, but there’s only 2:20 to go in that game. The winner will play Delaware in the semifinals.

Update 6:22 PM

Tennessee is able to finally put a drive together, but misses the field goal, so it’s still 13-7 LSU in the SEC Championship.

Update 6:11 PM

Tennessee leaves their defense in the locker room during halftime apparently as LSU flies down the field to score a touchdown and goes up 13-7.

Update 6:02 PM

Also, Florida Atlantic defeats Troy 38-32 as the owls pull off the upset to win the Sun Belt conference and earns a bid to the New Orleans Bowl.

Update 5:51 PM

We have our final Division II and III finals today:

In the Division II quarterfinals, Northwest Missouri State defeats Chadron State 26-13, while in the Division III quarterfinals, Bethel (MN) defeats Central College 27-13.

The Division II semifinals are now set as two-time defending champion Grand Valley State vs. Northwest Missouri State, whom GVSU has defeated in each of the last two national championship games, and Valdosta State vs. California (PA)

The Division III semifinals are set as Mt. Union vs. Bethel (MN) and Mary Hardin-Baylor vs. Wisconsin-Whitewater.

Update 5:43 PM

Delaware defeats Northern Iowa 39-27.

Update 5:38 PM

LSU ends a rather sloppily played half offensively for both teams so far by missing a field goal, and Tennessee goes into halftime ahead 7-6.

Meanwhile, Delaware probably just put away Northern Iowa, scoring another touchdown and going up 39-27 with just 41 seconds to go.

Update 5:27 PM

Northern Iowa says not so fast. They cut their lead against Delaware to 32-27 with 4:30 to go.

Update 5:24 PM

We had 3 undefeated I-AA teams going into the playoffs. It looks like none of them will make the semifinals as Delaware is now up on Northern Iowa 32-20 with only 5:40 to go.

Update 5:17 PM

Tennessee finally forces LSU to punt.

Update 5:09 PM

Tennessee once again has to punt. Their 3rd punt of the game. LSU has not punted yet. Yet Tennessee still leads 7-6.

Update 5:03 PM

LSU drives down the field again, but this time they go for it on 4th down and fail to pick it up for only the 3rd time this year.

Update 5:02 PM

Delaware is now up on Northern Iowa 29-20 heading into the 4th quarter. Meanwhile, Southern Illinois extends their lead on Massachusetts 27- 13

Update 5:01 PM

Southern Cal strikes first and they lead UCLA 7-0.

Update 4:46 PM

Valdosta State defeats North Alabama in the Division II quarterfinals 37-23.

Update 4:44 PM

Tennessee gets stop and has to punt. LSU once again drives down the field, but like in their game against Arkansas, fail to get it into the end zone. They stick another field goal on the board and it’s 7-6 Tennessee.

Update 4:40 PM

Delaware retakes the lead on Northern Iowa with a field goal, going up 22-20. Meanwhile, Massachusetts is trying to crawl back in their game, now only down to Southern Illinois 20-13.

Update 4:38 PM

Virginia Tech is ACC Champions, defeating Boston College 30-16. Meanwhile, Hawaii celebrates as BC should fall below them, assuming Hawaii wins tonight.

Update 4:35 PM

Virginia Tech takes care of business this time, picking off Matt Ryan, and taking it to the endzone to take a 30-16 lead.

Update 4:31 PM

Boston College holds Virginia Tech to a 3-and-out, so they get the ball back on the Boston College 35 yard line with only 34 seconds to go, and no time outs. Will we see another BC comeback?

Meanwhile, Northern Iowa retakes the lead on Delaware 20-19 in the 3rd quarter.

Update 4:28 PM

LSU marches down the field, but then Tennessee’s defense stiffens and holds LSU to only a field goal. It’s 7-3 Tennessee in the SEC Championship game.

Update 4:25 PM

Boston College tries another comeback against Virginia Tech, but this time appears to come back short, failing on a 4th down play inside the Tech 15. Virginia Tech takes over with only 2:25 to go.

Update 4:16 PM

Another Division II final: Grand Valley State defeats Central Washington 41-21.

Also another Division III final: Wisconsin-Whitewater defeats Wabash College 47-7.

Update 4:14 PM

The 500 fans in Jacksonville goes wild as someone finally scores again in the ACC Championship as Virginia Tech goes up on Boston College 23-16 with 7:20 to go in the game.

Meanwhile in the SEC Championship Game, Tennessee strikes first, going up on LSU 7-0.

Update 3:48 PM

The ACC Championship game heads towards the 4th quarter with neither team really able to get anything going in the 3rd quarter. Virginia Tech and Boston College are still tied at 16.

Update 3:44 PM

Southern Illinois also leads Massachusetts 13-0.

Update 3:41 PM

Delaware is now up on Northern Iowa 19-10 nearing halftime.

Update 3:41 PM

Appalachian State recovers the onsides kick and advances to the I-AA semifinals to play either Wofford or Richmond.

In a Division II final, California (PA) defeats Shepherd 58-38.

Update 3:37 PM

Central Florida wins the Conference USA Championship game over Tulsa 44-25.

Update 3:35 PM

Appalachian State recovers the onsides kick and goes 3-and-out, but they force Eastern Washington to use all of their timeouts. Eastern Washington once again drives down the field to put another touchdown on the board, making it 38-35. They now need the onsides kick as there is only 28 seconds to go and they have no timeouts.

Also, suddenly Delaware is up on Northern Iowa 12-10.

Update 3:20 PM

Eastern Washington is able to drive down the field to close the gap against Appalachian State to 38-28, but they took a long time with there only being 3:11 left in the game.

Update 3:18 PM

Navy routes Army 38-3.

Update 3:07 PM

Appalachian State recovers an Eastern Washington fumble and probably puts the final nail in the coffin by scoring another touchdown, going up 38-21 with only 6:07 to go.

Update 3:06 PM

A couple of Division III finals:

Mt. Union 52, St. John Fisher 10
Mary-Hardin Baylor 27, Wesley College 10

Update 2:52 PM

Appalachian State is able to get into Eastern Washington’s territory but the drive stalls and EWU stops ASU for the 2nd straight drive. However, they’re still down 31-21.

Also, it’s now 10-o Northern Iowa over Delaware.

Update 2:39 PM

Virginia Tech responds to Boston College, driving down the field and tying the game at 16-16.

Update 2:38 PM

Appalachian State intercepts an Eastern Washington pass, but EWU is able to hold ASU to stay in the game and gets the ball back on a punt.

Update 2:30 PM

The last remaining undefeated team in I-AA Northern Iowa takes a 7-0 lead on Delaware in the 1st quarter.

Update 2:29 PM

Appalachian State once again answers Eastern Washington, putting another touchdown on the board and going up 31-21.

Eastern Washington is going to have to get their offense going. Their three touchdowns have been on a kickoff return for a touchdown, a fake punt, and a 14 yard drive after another long kickoff return. Eastern Washington hasn’t had a single long drive for a touchdown today. Meanwhile, Eastern Washington’s defense hasn’t been able to stop Appalachian State’s offense all day. They’ll need to do that if they want to win this game.

Update 2:20 PM

Boston College responds to Virginia Tech’s touchdown with one of their own. However, Virginia Tech blocks the extra point and returns it for 2 points and Boston College is only able to extend their lead to 16-9.

Update 2:18 PM

Eastern Washington gets their second huge kickoff return, this time for a touchdown, and suddenly it’s 24-21 Appalachian State.

Update 2:15 PM

Central Michigan wins the MAC, defeating Miami (OH) 35-10

Update 2:14 PM

Appalachian State drives down the field on their first drive of the 2nd half and puts up a field goal to expand their lead to 24-14.

Update 2:11 PM

Virginia Tech finally is able to get a drive together and sticks it into an endzone to make it 10-7 Boston College.

Update 1:59 PM

Eastern Washington scores a touchdown on a fake punt on their opening drive of the 2nd half to reduce Appalachian State’s lead to 21-14.

Meanwhile, Boston College works their way down the field and adds a field goal to make it a 10-0 lead over Virginia Tech.

Update 1:38 PM

Virginia Tech fumbles and Boston College recovers and runs it back for a touchdown to take a 7-0 lead.

Update 1:31 PM

In the Division II quarterfinals, California (PA) leads Shepherd 27-17 at halftime, Grand Valley State leads Central Washington 6-0 in the 1st quarter, while North Alabama and Valdosta State are tied at 6 in the 1st quarter. I can’t seem to find a score for the Chadron State vs. NW Missouri State game.

In the Division III quarterfinals, Mt. Union leads St. John Fisher 21-0 at halftime, Mary-Hardin Baylor leads Wesley College 10-3 at halftime, Wisconsin-Whitewater leads Wabash 7-0 in the 1st quarter, while the Bethel vs. Central College game is reported as being delayed.

Update 1:25 PM

Despite 3 holding calls on their drive, including one calling back a touchdown, Appalachian State is still able to stick it into the endzone, and now it’s 21-7 ASU over Eastern Washington near halftime.

Also, Tulsa strikes back and it’s now 24-20 Central Florida over the Golden Hurricanes. Also, Navy is now up on Army 21-3.

Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is held to a 3-and-out.

Update 1:18 PM

Virginia Tech is back to their usual business in the ACC Championship Game as they block a Boston College field goal.

Update 1:17 PM

Central Michigan now goes up on Miami (OH) 14-3.

Update 1:15 PM

By the way, the Conference USA title game is also going on today. Currently Central Florida leads Tulsa 24-13.

Update 1:13 PM

Eastern Washington gets the ball inside the ASU 5 yard line but fumbles the ball away and is recovered by Appalachian State.

Meanwhile, Miami (OH) gets on the board, but is still down to Central Michigan 7-3. It’s also 7-3 Navy over Army.

Update 1:00 PM

Appalachian State is able to work their way into Eastern Washington territory, but then is stopped and is forced to put it away.

Update 12:52 PM

Eastern Washington returns the kickoff down to the ASU 14 yard line. They quickly put it into the endzone and makes it 14-7 Appalachian State.

Update 12:47 PM

Navy goes up 7-0 on Army. Meanwhile, Appalachian State appears to be having an easier time this week than last week as they go up on Eastern Washington 14-0.

Update 12:39 PM

Eastern Washington gets deep into Appalachian State territory, but a big sack sets EWU back and ASU blocks the field goal.

Update 12:27 PM

Appalachian State strikes first and goes up on Eastern Washington 7-0.

In the MAC Championship, it’s 7-0 Central Michigan over Miami at halftime (the game started at 11am).

Original Post

We start off the day with the MAC Championship game between Miami (OH) and Central Michigan and our first I-AA quarterfinal between Eastern Washington and Appalachian State.

It’s the final week of the regular season and this is where everything will be decided.

Let’s start off with the BCS National Championship.  For once, who goes will be easy:

If Missouri defeats Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship game, they’re in the title game.  If West Virginia defeats Pittsburgh, they’re in the title game.  If either lose, Ohio State will get in.  If both lose, it will likely be Ohio State vs. Georgia.  Yes, Georgia.

As for getting into the BCS, West Virginia and Ohio State have already gained automatic bids by winning their conferences.  The winner of the Big 12 Championship will get an automatic bid, the winner of the ACC Championship game between Virginia Tech and Boston College will get an automatic bid, and the winner of the SEC Championship game will get an automatic bid.

The Pac 10 gets messy again.  Currently Southern Cal leads the Pac 10.  If they defeat UCLA today, they get into the BCS.  However, if Southern Cal loses, then the BCS bid falls to Arizona State - assuming they defeat Arizona tonight.  If both USC and Arizona State both lose, then it falls to Oregon - assuming they can defeat Oregon State.  If all 3 teams lose, then we’ll have a 4-way tie for the Pac 10 title between Arizona State, USC, Oregon State, and UCLA.  In the first round of head-to-head matchups, Arizona State is 2-1, USC would be 2-1, UCLA would be 2-1, and Oregon State would be 0-3.  That doesn’t really help us as now in this three-way tie-breaker, everyone is 1-1.

The next tie-breaker is to see how teams did against the next highest placing team in the conference down until we can break the tie.  Under this scenario it would be Arizona, as Arizona and Oregon would have 4 conference losses, and Arizona defeated Oregon.  Here, Arizona State would have lost, USC lost, and UCLA won.  That means, in the case of a 4-way tie, UCLA would win the Pac 10 (assuming I’m doing all of this correctly).

That takes care of our conference champions.  Georgia will get an automatic bid, either by being in the title game or due to the “Kansas State rule.” being an at-large placed at 3rd, or at 4th if the 3rd place team is a conference champion.

Hawaii is currently in 12th, which would give them an automatic bid into the BCS as well.  They don’t play until 11:30, so we won’t know until late to see if they still have a chance.  Looking at the BCS standings, they’ll want both Boston College and Oklahoma to lose, so that they’ll drop below Hawaii in the BCS.  They would also probably prefer an Arizona upset of Arizona State and for Tennessee to lose the SEC title to prevent the Sun Devils and Volunteers from hopping over them.

However, there is still one more way Hawaii could get in, and the Pac 10 could help.  The well known rule is that a non-BCS team must place in the top 12 of the BCS to get an automatic bid.  However, they can also place in the top 16 and finish above one of the BCS conference champions.  If Oregon or UCLA win the Pac 10 today, Hawaii would likely finish higher than them in the BCS (in fact, it would pretty much be certain in UCLA’s case) and, providing Hawaii wins, they should get in, even if they drop from 12th and stay above 16th.

As for the other 2 at-large teams, if it’s Missouri vs. West Virginia in the title, I don’t see how Kansas doesn’t fall into the Fiesta Bowl.  If Ohio State gets in, expect the Rose Bowl to pick up Illinois.  How about the last team.  That becomes interesting because the BCS field gets very thin after that.  If Missouri loses, they’re probably going to get the last at-large, but let’s assume a Missouri/West Virginia title game.  After going through the top 12, we’re likely still going to have a Fiesta Bowl spot to fill.  From what I can tell, possible teams going into that spot include Arizona State, Illinois, the loser of the ACC title game, USC if they lose to UCLA, Clemson, Oregon, and if they get high enough in the standings, Brigham Young.

You’d have to believe that this spot is most likely going to the Pac 10 unless the conference just melts down today.  If both Arizona State and USC win, expect this to go to Arizona State.   If USC loses, expect this spot to go to USC.  If they both lose, then it starts getting weird.  Perhaps a team like Illinois could sneak in.

Update 9:24 PM

By the way, this will not be the first time Maryville has played in 4 straight state titles. They also played in the state title game 4 straight times between 1976-1979, winning it in ‘76 and ‘78, both against Brentwood Academy. Maryville is going for their 11th state title in 37 years and is playing in their 14th title game (they have 8 additional semifinal appearances. Think about that. In 37 years, they have reached AT LEAST the semifinals 22 times).

Update 9:13 PM

Here are some stats:

First downs: 22 first downs for Maryville, 21 for South

256 yards rushing, 255 yards passing for Maryville for 511 total yards.

264 yards rushing, 86 yards passing for South for 350 total yards.

Maryville also picked up 6 of 7 third down conversions. The only one they missed was that 3rd and 15 on their 2nd drive of the game. On every other drive Maryville put it in the endzone save the two drives that ended in fumbles.

The backbreaker in this game was when South was down 28-14 and inside the Maryville 10 yard line and fumbling the ball away. Maryville then rushed all over South for 94 yards and went up 3 touchdowns. From that point, South had to take more risks offensively to try to get back into it, and it just didn’t work, and the defense just couldn’t stop Maryville’s rushing game for the rest of the contest.

Just one other bit of trivia. This is, as far as I’m aware, only the 2nd meeting between these teams. The only other meeting was in the first round of the 1995 playoffs when Maryville won 17-10.

Update 9:09 PM

And it’s over, 48-21. Maryville goes on to the state championship for the 4th straight year and for the 7th time in 8 years as they win their 59th straight.

The 21 points ties South’s lowest offensive output of the year along with South’s only other loss when they lost to Greeneville 24-21. The 48 points is twice the previous high number of points South has allowed this season - with that 24 points by Greeneville being the previous high.

Meanwhile, this is the 5th time Maryville has scored over 40 points and the 2nd straight week they have done so. Maryville has now scored 100 points in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds in the playoffs. The 21 points by South ties the 2nd most points Maryville has allowed this season, tying Knoxville West at 21 points, and is only beaten by the 30 points Maryville allowed against Knoxville Halls.

Update 9:04 PM

Maryville intercepts Phillips for the first time tonight and returns it 50 yards for a touchdown. It’s now 48-21 with only 22 seconds to go.

Update 9:01 PM

Maryville fumbles it again when trying to put the game and South recovers on the Maryville 10 with 2:05 to go. However, with the score sitting at 41-21, South probably just doesn’t have enough time.

Update 8:54 PM

South forgoes the onsides kick and kicks it off. However, Maryville returns it back to their own 47 yard line.

Update 8:52 PM

Phillips gets his 3rd touchdown of the game as South finally is able to get down the field again to make it 41-21. But there is only 5:57 to go in the game.

Update 8:44 PM

Maryville quickly runs all over South once again and what had been a pretty close game is turning into a rout as it’s now 41-14 Maryville (Maryville pissed the PAT).

Update 8:41 PM

Sullivan South goes for it on 4th down on their own 38 yard line and fails to convert.

Update 8:38 PM

South takes a fair catch on the kickoff at the 32 yard line as South now has their work cut out for them as they now will have to score 3 touchdowns in the 4th quarter plus have to stop Maryville’s offense.

Update 8:36 PM

Maryville gets a 39 yard touchdown run to probably score the game-clenching touchdown as Maryville runs all over South on a 94 yard drive to take a 35-14 lead.

Update 8:29 PM

South gets the kickoff and takes it out to the 36 yard line. South was held to a 3rd and 6 but South is able to get their first completion down field down to the Maryville 31 yard line. Maryville is able to tackle South for a 7 yard loss on the next play, putting South back into a hole. However, on 3rd down South once again hits another pass down field down to the 19 yard line. South then passes it down to the 5 yard line, only to fumble and Maryville recovers just as South is about to bring the game back to within one score.

Update 8:20 PM

Maryville marches into South’s territory then is held to 3rd and 10, but picks it up down to the 22 yard line. The next play Maryville tosses it into the endzone for another Maryville touchdown and it’s 28-14 Maryville.

Update 8:16 PM

It’s time for the 2nd half and South pooch kicks the kickoff and Maryville starts their drive at their own 40.

Update 7:50 PM

Maryville gets the ball again at about the 30 and engages in their hurry-up offense and quickly get down to South’s 20 yard line. However, Maryville fumbles the ball and South recovers and so Maryville not only doesn’t score a touchdown, they can’t pick up any points. As a result, Maryville goes into halftime with a 21-14 lead on Sullivan South.

Update 7:45 PM

South runs all over Maryville as Phillips picks up his 2nd rushing touchdown of the game. It’s now 21-14 Maryville with 1:21 to go in the 1st half.

Update 7:35 PM

Maryville gets another bomb, this time for 59 yards and it’s now 21-7 Maryville.

Update 7:31 PM

South ends up going 3-and-out on their next drive and is forced to punt to Maryville. Maryville gets the ball at their own 29 yard drive to start their next drive.

Update 7:27 PM

Maryville throws a 62 yard touchdown pass to take a 14-7 lead.

Update 7:24 PM

It was a first down, and South Quarterback Curt Phillips gets a big gain down to the 11 yard line for another first down. On the next play Phillips runs it in for a touchdown for Sullivan South and they make it 7-7 with 11:37 to go in the 1st half.

Update 7:21 PM

South RB Taylor Fletcher rushes the ball twice and picks up 20 yards and puts South back into Maryville territory. End of the 1st quarter, 7-0 Maryville over South. It’ll either be 3rd and inches or 1st and 10 for South around the Maryville 30 yard line.

Update 7:18 PM

Two straight plays for losses puts Maryville in a hole, putting them in a 3rd and 15 and South is able to cause an incompletion. We have a the first 3-and-out of the game courtesy of the Sullivan South defense. Maryville punts and South returns will get the ball on their own 40 yard line. 1:25 to go in the 1st quarter.

Update 7:15 PM

South moves the ball into Maryville territory, but once again after a single first down the drive stalls. South attempts a fake punt, but it fails and Maryville gets the ball back.

Update 7:11 PM

By the way, the South quarterback Phillips also returns kicks and plays Linebacker. South gets the ball over the 40 yard line on the kickoff after a pooch kick.

Update 7:09 PM

Maryville mixes up passes and rushes and is able to pick up two 3rd downs on the drive to march the field and strike first. It’s Maryville 7 South 0. 5:49 to go in the 1st quarter.

Update 7:03 PM

Maryville kicks and South gets a touchback and gets the ball at the 20. Sullivan South gets down to about the 45 yard line before having to punt the ball away. Maryville calls for the fair catch at their own 25 yard line. Now Maryville goes on offense for the first time.

6:58 PM

Well, it’s the Rebels vs. the Red Rebels. Here we go. Sullivan South, my high school, vs. the 3-time defending state champion with the 58 game winning streak.

My former high school, Sullivan South, is in the Tennessee State semifinals for only the 2nd time in it’s history.  The first time was in 1993 when a RB/DB combo player named Jeremy Osborne carried the team to a 12-0 record into that game - the last time Sullivan South finished the regular season undefeated.  Osborne ended up going to Furman, one of the few Division I prospects to come out of this northeast Tennessee high school.

Well, tonight once again South is in the semifinals, though this time they aren’t undefeated - they’re 12-1, having avenged their only loss of the season last week in the quarterfinals against Greeneville 41-21.  This team is also lead by a Division I commit - Curt Phillips - who has been described as Tennessee High School’s Tim Tebow, and is heading off to play at Wisconsin next year.  He’s also a Mr. Football finalist in the state, having scored at least 21 points in every single game this season.  He has 3,788 total yards this season - 1,748 on the ground and 2,040 in the air.  He also has 36 rushing touchdowns and 17 passing touchdowns to 7 interceptions this season (that’s 53 total touchdowns if you don’t feel like doing the math).

However, like in 1993 when they were faced 2-time state champion Cleveland - who ultimately defeated South 28-0 - they play 3-time defending champion Maryville this time.  Maryville is a team who has won 6 of the 7 seven state titles and ride a 58 game winning streak into this game.  Their last loss was in the 2003 state semifinals by a field goal.  Maryville too has a Mr. Football finalist - Brent Burnette -  Maryville’s senior quarterback who is very pass happy - and very good at it hitting 200 of 291 passes this season.  He’s looking at possibly going to UNC, Virginia, and MTSU.

With the biggest threat in the west half of the state (Hillsboro) eliminated last week, the winner of this semifinal should be favored in win the state title next week in Murfreesboro.   However, this game may also determine who will win the Mr. Football award at the back position in Class 4A.

If I can find this game on the radio anywhere online I’ll try to blog it, but prospects seem rather dim on that front (unless I want to pay for it).

Update at bottom.

While the teams who got into the I-AA tournament may not be all that surprising, I found the seeding to be a little shocking.

The first 3 seeds were not surprise: #1 Northern Iowa, #2 McNeese State, and #3 Montana all finished the season undefeated. Also, Southern Illinois being picked as the #4 seeded wasn’t wholly surprising given they were the only 1-loss team in the nation, and whose only loss was to Northern Iowa.

However, from that point, the surprises start coming.

9-2 Massachusetts and 9-2 Richmond were both seeded higher than 9-2 Appalachian State, despite Appalachian State’s Week 1 victory at Michigan. Massachusetts was given the #5 seed while Richmond was seeded #6. Appalachian State was seeded #7. Delaware, which lost this past weekend to Villanova, was given the #8 seed, giving Colonial Athletic Association teams 3 home games in the first round.

After that, Delaware State, which was ranked only one spot behind Delaware before the Blue Hen’s loss this past weekend, is seeded 9th, James Madison, another CAA team, is seeded 10th, Eastern Kentucky is seeded 11th, and Fordham is seeded 12th.

Rounding out the final 4 seeds are Eastern Illinois, Wofford, Eastern Washington, and New Hampshire, which became a record 5th CAA team in the tournament.

Youngstown State, who was ranked ahead of both New Hampshire and Eastern Illinois in the Coaches poll, were left out of the tournament, though apparently there is usually resisitence against putting 4-loss teams into the tournament if possible.

That makes the Bracket thus:

#16 New Hampshire at #1 Northern Iowa
#9 Delaware State at #8 Delaware
#12 Fordham at #5 Massachusetts
#13 Eastern Illinois at #4 Southern Illinois
#14 Wofford at #3 Montana
#11 Eastern Kentucky at #6 Richmond
#10 James Madison at #7 Appalachian State
#15 Eastern Washington at #2 McNeese State

Is it me, or was this bracket structured around making it as hard as possible for Appalachian State to win a 3rd straight title. First off, most people not only thought that Appalachian State probably wouldn’t be seeded that low, but could possibly jump Southern Illinois for the 4-seed due to SIU’s lack of strength of schedule and ASU’s win over Michigan. That obviously didn’t happen. Also, even though neither of ASU’s losses weren’t bad (to Wofford, who is in the tournament, and to Georgia Southern, who probably only didn’t make it because they lost to a I-A team this past weekend), apparently both Richmond and UMass have a bad loss on their record, which makes their being seeded over ASU surprising.

This also means, barring upsets, ASU will only get one home game - and that’s against probably the best team not playing at home in the first round in James Madison. If they win that game, they have to face undefeated McNeese State in the 2nd round instead of a 10-1 and more-equal-to-them Southern Illinois, who they would have faced if they were the 5 seed.

Basically, if everyone wins as they should, and ASU still wins the title, they will have definitely earned it, since they potentially have to defeat all three remaining undefeated teams left in I-AA to get there.

One also has to wonder if the first round matchups were made to make maximum hype for them. Clearly the James Madison vs. Appalachian State will be the most hyped first round game since both are excellent teams. But then you have several regional matchups in the 1st round with Delaware vs. Delaware State, Eastern Illinois vs. Southern Illinois, Massachusetts vs. Fordham, and, arguably, Eastern Kentucky vs. Richmond.

Really, only the big 3 undefeated teams got off by not having to play someone in pretty close proximity to them - Northern Iowa gets New Hampshire, McNeese State (which is located in Louisiana), gets Eastern Washington, while Montana gets Wofford.

In any case, we’ll see how this all plays out starting next week.

Update

As a commenter so eloquently pointed out, the reason there are so many regional matchups is because, well, that’s how the bracket is set up (warning, rather large pdf):

All pairings will be made by the Division I football committee. The following principles are applied when pairing teams:

1. The teams awarded the top four seeds are placed in the appropriate positions in the bracket (Nos. 1 and 4 in the upper half, and Nos. 2 and 3 in the lower half), and will be paired with teams that are in closest geographic proximity;

2. The remaining teams will be paired according to geographic proximity and placed in the bracket according to geographic proximity of the four pairings previously placed in the bracket.

So it’s kind of like pods, but in football.  It see why they do it this way - to keep teams as close as possible, and I guess there is a rationale that, if it’s a playoff, you have to beat everyone anyway, so who you play doesn’t really matter in the end.

Except, outside of first round games, I don’t see the regions holding up.  First off, Appalachian State is closer to #4 Southern Illinois than #2 McNeese State by about 400 miles (about 540 miles vs. 940 miles).  OK, one could arguably say that ASU should play down in Louisiana because none of the other 1st round host institutions (Delaware, Massachusetts, and Richmond) are closer to McNeese State.

However, if ASU is supposed to be the #5 team in the bracket, and there is no clear regional breakdown (teams in Delaware, North Carolina, Virginia, and Massachusetts being paired with teams in Iowa, Montana, Louisiana, and Illinois), shouldn’t they basically get first consideration on where to play, since no one is going to play remotely near home in the 2nd round anyway?

I mean, you look at those choices.  About the only team that doesn’t make sense to pair with McNeese State would be Massachusetts.  But about anyone could go with Northern Iowa, anyone could go with Montana, and anyone could go with Southern Illinois.  In that case, outside the first round, there isn’t really any regional integrity to maintain, so why not place them essentially as seeds?

Also, am I the only one who notices that their regional pairings could have been made considerably easier if they had just made ASU the #4 seed - something which some people believed would happen anyway (and they certainly had a strong argument for it).  In that case, you’d have Richmond being paired with ASU as a no-brainer.  Southern Illinois being paired with Northern Iowa as a no-brainer.  I already said UMass shouldn’t go to McNeese State, so they’d get shipped out to Montana, and then Delaware gets paired with McNeese.

I won’t even get into the issue of whether one gets to play a home game or not.  While, for practical purposes, the better team should always get the home game in the playoffs, it’s not guaranteed (and why it’s not is simple: $$$).

Also for perhaps another day is what I consider to be the unfair advantage the CAA gets by being a conference with 12 teams, yet playing only 8 conference games and not having any sort of conference championship game.  This conference was built to maximize the number of teams it can put into the I-AA tournament since everyone does not play everyone else (Case in point: UMass and Richmond, the conference co-champions, didn’t play).  The only other conference like this is the Ohio Valley, but it’s somewhat mitigated by the fact that it’s only 10 teams, so they don’t play 1 team instead of not playing 3 teams. (The MEAC also has 10 teams, but they play 9 conference games).

And I didn’t even notice this: the apparent last team in, New Hampshire has 4 losses - all in conference (meaning they were 4-4 in their conference).  Georgia Southern  also has 4-losses, they were thisclose from winning the conference (they ended up going 4-3 in a conference where everyone had at least 2 conference losses), and one of their losses was to a I-A team.  Why did New Hampshire get in as a 5th CAA team over Georgia Southern as a 3rd Southern Conference team?

Or why did New Hampshire get in above a 4-loss Youngstown State team, where 3 of their 4 losses are against 2 of the 4 seeded teams in the I-AA tournament and Ohio State?

Or why did they get in ahead of 4-loss Elon, who also went 4-3 in the Southern Conference, plus lost by only two touchdowns to South Florida?

Or why did they get ahead of a 3-loss Norfolk State team, who also lost to a I-A team (Rutgers)?

The more I look at it, the more the selection of New Hampshire makes absolutely no sense, and it’s just aggravated by the fact that it gave the CAA a record 5 teams in the tournament.  The only argument one could make is that they beat Marhsall (which is a comparable game to Georgia Southern vs. Colorado State, and Georgia Southern lost - but then again Georgia Southern lost to fewer I-AA teams too).

So even with the correction that teams are placed regionally, it still doesn’t make sense to me.

Well, so much for the anticipated Big 12 playoff.  We’ll still get part of it next week when Missouri and Kansas face off, but now a Big 12 team in the title game is no longer assured.  Even more, it may not even be Oklahoma who represents the southern division in the Big 12 title game.  Oklahoma’s loss gives them 2 conference losses and ties them with Texas.  If Texas defeats Texas A&M and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, it will be Texas who plays in the Big 12 title game.

Speaking of title games, Boston College played their way into the ACC title game with a 20-17 come-from-behind victory at Clemson.  They’ll face the winner of Virginia Tech/Virginia, who play next weekend.

Meanwhile, in the SEC, LSU had already clenched the SEC West title, but the SEC East race got a tad bit clearer as Georgia’s win over Kentucky boots Florida from the race.  Georgia almost clenched the East title, but Tennessee was able to come back and beat Vanderbilt.  If Tennessee defeats Kentucky next weekend, Tennessee will play in the SEC title game.  If they lose, Georgia will play LSU.  Georgia is finished with their SEC schedule.

In the BCS conferences without a formal title game, Ohio State clenched the Big 10 title by defeating Michigan 14-3 in a sloppy game, both in the weather, as well as with Michigan’s offense, who couldn’t get anything going on the ground or in the air.

In the Big East, West Virginia’s win over  Cincinnati set up a de facto Big East championship game next week with Connecticut.

In the Pac 10, Arizona State controls their own destiny now, but plays USC next Thursday, and then Arizona after that.  If they were to lose, Oregon would be next in line,  If Oregon loses, then it falls into USC’s hands.  However, if all hell breaks loose, you could end up seeing a 4-way tie for 1st place in the Pac 10 between Arizona State, USC, and 2 out of Oregon, Oregon State, and UCLA.  That could happen if Arizona State loses to both USC and Arizona, USC loses to UCLA, and Oregon loses to Oregon State, UCLA, or both.

In non-BCS conferences, the Conference USA Eastern title will be determined next week. UCF has a one game lead on East Carolina, but East Carolina owns the head-to-head tie-breaker.  That means if UCF were to lose to UTEP and East Carolina defeats Tulane next weekend, East Carolina would win the division.

The Western Division is in a similar situation where Tulsa and Houston are tied for the division lead with 2 losses, but Tulsa defeated Houston earlier.  It all comes down to Tulsa, as Houston is finished with their conference slate.  If Tulsa defeats Rice, they win the division.  If they lose, Houston wins the division.

In the MAC, the conference title game is now set: Miami vs. Central Michigan.

In the Mountain-West, Brigham Young all but has the conference title, but Utah could still feasibly pull out the come-from-behind upset in the conference race. However, Utah will have to beat BYU next week to keep their hopes alive, and then hope BYU gets upset by San Diego State in the final game of the season.  That was the game delayed by the California fires earlier in the season.

In the Sun Belt, it is essentially a two team race between Troy and Florida Atlantic.  FAU is 1 game behind Troy, but they get to play the Trojans in the last game of the season.   Depending on how tie-breakers work, MTSU could still have a shot, but Troy would have to lose to FAU as well as MTSU, while Florida Atlantic would have to lose to Florida International.

In the WAC, the title will be determined by the Hawaii/Boise State game next weekend.