Code Orange

It’s the first actual BCS Human poll, and it’s looking good for LSU.  Here is the Coaches poll top 10:

1. Ohio State (46) 1,469
2. LSU (11) 1,418
3. Oklahoma (2) 1,331
4. Georgia 1,277
5. Virginia Tech 1,242
6. Southern California 1,227
7. Missouri 1,104
8. Kansas 1,099
9. West Virginia 1,010
10. Hawaii (1) 994

Once again, it’s the points that matter, not the rank, so here are the scores that will go into the BCS:

LSU:  0.945
Oklahoma: 0.887
Georgia: 0.851
Virginia Tech: 0.828
Southern Cal: 0.818

Given Oklahoma’s computer disadvantage, this will put LSU in the title game. Unless the Harris poll rebels against what the AP and Coaches poll is doing - and I doubt they will - I see no way for Georgia to make up this distance in the computer rankings.  LSU will play Ohio State for the national title.

As a result, I predict the BCS as thus:

1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Georgia
4. Virginia Tech
5. Oklahoma
If you’re curios, here are the changes from last week:

LSU: +5 ranks, +284 points (average +4.7 spots per ballot)
Oklahoma: +5 ranks, +205 points (average +3.4 spots per ballot)
Georgia: No rank change, +45 points, (average +0.8 spots per ballot)
Virginia Tech: No rank change, +81 points, (average +1.4 spots per ballot)
Southern Cal: +4 ranks, +154 points (average +2.6 spots per ballot)

This clearly shows a concerted effort to put Oklahoma and especially LSU into the title game. It’s interesting that LSU got a bigger per-ballot increase (4.7 spots) for defeating a 4-loss now-18th ranked Tennessee than Oklahoma got (3.4 spots) for defeating the then-#1, now-#7 ranked team Missouri.

I also think there are four damning portions to this poll:

1) Clearly there was an effort to make LSU the #2 team.  This can be seen from the fact that LSU is actually closer to #1 Ohio State than they are #3 Oklahoma.  People intentionaly put as much distance between LSU and Georgia to make computers a non-factor (knowing that Oklahoma would need to be a very strong #2 to get in despite their computer rankings)

2) Virginia Tech defeated Boston College, yet got leapfrogged by both LSU and Oklahoma, who both rose 5 spots.  Virginia Tech defeated a better team than Tennessee (and by a larger margin), yet hardly moved at all.  They only gained 1.4 spots per ballot even though 2 teams ahead of them lost.  It’s clear that, for the first and only time this year, people were voting based on who they wanted in the title game rather than how they usually vote.

If people think that polls should always show show they think should be in the title game - then they should vote that way.  LSU would have been in the top 2 all year, despite losing twice then.  If they think you should punish people for losing, and rewarding people for winning - and being consistent in those punishments and rewards - then do it every week, not just all the weeks except the final week.

3) To ensure Kansas couldn’t make it (and possibly screwing the Jayhawks out of a BCS bid), they were dropped 3 spots despite 2 teams ahead of them losing.  USC, Oklahoma, and LSU all jumpted ahead, and Virginia Tech, whom Kansas was tied with before, moved ahead, while Missouri remained ahead of Kansas despite losing.

This also goes towards the “vote the same way every week in the poll” point above.

4) There might also be an effort to squeeze Hawaii out of the BCS.  Hawaii was 12th last week in the BCS - right on the minimum rank in the BCS to get an auto-bid.  Arizona State, the 13th ranked team, actually jumped Florida in the Coaches poll to gain a position and 144 points.  Hawaii, meanwhile, only gained 38 points.

Boston College, the only team directly above Hawaii to lose, only dropped two positions and lost 244 points.  That should drop Boston College under Hawaii, leaving them 12th even if Arizona jumps over them, but it will be close.  Illinois, another team under Hawaii, also jumped up a rank and gained 100 points in the polls - though that was mostly at BC’s expense.

Not that I’m complaining, but I’m shocked the AP voters moved South Florida up to #2 - with 11 #1 votes for that matter. It’s no shock, however, that Ohio State is #1. Boston College is #3 in the AP and #2 in the Coaches poll with South Florida landing at #3 in the coaches.

Oklahoma falls in at #4 in both and, I think a little surprisingly, LSU comes in at #5 in both polls, so they’re in great position to get back into the title hunt.

South Carolina, Oregon, Kentucky, West Virginia, and California round out the top 10 in the AP while Oregon, West Virginia, South Carolina, Cal, and USC (who are tied for 9th) round out the top 10 in the coaches poll.

#12 Arizona State in the AP also received a #1 vote.

Hawaii actually moved down a spot in the AP poll to #17 - with only Cincinnati dropping below them, but both Kentucky and Kansas jumping over them. Hawaii stayed the same in the Coaches poll.

Three new teams join the AP Poll: #22 Texas Tech, #24 Michigan, and #25 Kansas State; while four new teams jump into the coaches poll: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Virginia, and Penn State. By the way, Michigan is a mere 1 point out of the top 25 in the coaches poll.

I don’t know when I’ve seen 6 different teams get #1 votes in the AP poll outside of the preseason poll or the first few weeks of the season, as Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College, Oklahoma, LSU (yes, LSU got a #1 vote despite losing), and Arizona State all receive #1 votes.

Edit: Thank you ESPN for answering this: the last time six teams received #1 votes after the first month of the season was on Nov. 25, 1990. In that poll, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Miami, Brigham Young, Texas, and Florida all had #1 votes. Six teams had recieved #1 votes the week before as well, after #1 Notre Dame lost.

The coaches poll is a little more sane with only the top 3 teams getting #1 votes.

The Harris poll isn’t out yet that I see, but we can look at the coaches poll and how it will influence the BCS ratings. Remember, the ranking doesn’t matter - it’s the number of points you get that matter.

There are 1500 total possible points in the Coaches poll, and here are the percentage breakdown for the top 5 teams:

Ohio State - 0.9967 (+ 0.0747)
Boston College - 0.9220 (+ 0.0420)
South Florida - .8800 (+ 0.0213)
Oklahoma - 0.8587 (+ 0.0767)
LSU - 0.7820

So clearly, the closest gap is between South Florida and Oklahoma.

As for the computers - only Sagarin is out, but here is his top 10:

1. South Florida
2. LSU
3. South Carolina
4. Kentucky
5. Boston College
6. Kansas
7. Ohio State
8. West Virginia
9. Arizona State
10. Virginia Tech

How about others? Oklahoma is 12th. California is 14th. Oregon is 19th. Southern Cal is 35th.

As for the other polls, what did they look like last week?

Billingsly had Ohio State #2, South Florida #3, Boston College #5, West Virginia #6, and South Carolina #7, with LSU #1 and Cal #3. Oklahoma was way down at #18.

Last Week, Colley had LSU #1, Arizona State #2, South Florida #3, Ohio State #4, Missouri #5, Cal #6, South Carolina #7, Boston College #8, Illinois #9, and Cincinnati #10. Oklahoma was way down at #20.

Meanwhile, Massey had LSU #1, South Florida #2, Missouri #3, Boston College #4, Ohio State #5, South Carolina #6, Arizona State #7, Cal #8, Illinois #9, and Virginia Tech #10. Once again, Oklahoma was way down at 30th.

The Wolfe and Anderson/Hester rankings don’t release rankings until the BCS starts coming out.

Things look great for South Florida to slide into the #2 slot I think, depending on how things shake out in the Harris poll. Out of the computer polls that we can see numbers for, South Florida leads Boston College in all 4. I’ll take a stab and say they’re average lead over Boston College is going to be around 2 spots. Not only that, but South Florida looks to be #1 or #2 in all 4 of those poll - #1 in two of them. But Boston College isn’t too far behind.

Ohio State is hurting in some of these - at 7th in the poll already out and looking to be #1 in probably 1 of the other 3 - their lead in the human polls should be more than enough to have them at #1 in the BCS.

The huge loser here is Oklahoma, whose best ranking is #12 in the Sagarin poll already released, and was ranked in the 20s or lower in 2 of the other 3 polls last week. Oklahoma may not even be in the BCS top 5 with those numbers.

If I had to guess, here is how the BCS will turn out:

1. Ohio State
2. South Florida (but very, very, very close to Boston College)
3. Boston College
4. LSU
5. West Virginia

Wow, the pollsters must love South Florida now.  I don’t know if I would have jumped them as much as they did, but the Bulls are now #6 in the AP and #9 in the Coaches poll - the highest ranked team in the state of Florida, at least in the AP (Florida only dropped 4 spots in the Coaches, so they’re still #7).

South Florida for the national championship anyone?  Of course, they still have a tough schedule left, having to still play at Rutgers, at UConn, vs. Cincinnati, and vs. Louisville (they’re a combined 16-3).  The only real hit on the Bulls is their lackluster out of conference schedule, which consists of I-AA Elon, 1-4 UNC, 3-2 Florida Atlantic from the Sun Belt, with 3-1 Central Florida being their only real good out of conference game.

However, there is a good chance that the Bulls will be 6-0 and possibly a top-5 team going into their game at Rutgers October 18th.

As I suspected, Kentucky is in the top 10 as well, ranked #8 in both polls, and they become the highest ranked team in the SEC East in the AP poll as well.  However, Kentucky is looking at a very tough road ahead in the month of October as they have to play at South Carolina, then at home against LSU, Florida, and resurgent Mississippi State on consecutive weeks.

Also, as I thought, LSU also takes over #1 in the AP poll with 33 #1 votes to USC’s 32, but USC maintains their #1 ranking in the coaches poll.  LSU is ahead of USC by a mere 2 points in the AP poll.  LSU closed the gap, but not as much as I thought, in the coaches poll.

Boston College also joins the top 10.

See the AP Top 25 | See the USA Today Coaches Top 25 

Not much movement at the top of the polls this week, except for Penn State dropping because they lost.

The AP poll saw Oklahoma jump Florida for 3rd, which isn’t surprising considering Oklahoma has been obliterating everyone they’ve played, and Florida had a rough time with Mississippi.  I’m just surprised they’re not getting any #1 votes.

Biggest climbers this week appear to be Kentucky and Georgia, both at +7, and Arizona State, Cincinnati, Missouri, and South Florida, all at+5.  Not surprisingly, the biggest drops were Penn State (-11) and Alabama (-6).  Louisville and Texas A&M dropped out.

Similar movement in the Coaches poll, with Michigan State moving up 9 spots (do teams normally do that after beating an 0-3 team?), Kentucky moving up 8 spots, Purdue and South Florida moving up 6 spots, Georgia and Missouri 5 spots.  Penn State dropped 9, but Alabama only dropped 4.  Again, Texas A&M and Louisville drop out.

And I like how Michigan is starting to get votes again…amazing what beating Penn State can do.