Code Orange

The AP Poll has been released, and here are the rankings:

1. Ohio State (50) 1,578
2. LSU (11) 1,519
3. Oklahoma (1) 1,423
4. Georgia (1) 1,421
5. Virginia Tech (1) 1,380
6. USC 1,346
7. Missouri 1,195
8. Kansas 1,164
9. Florida 1,071
10. Hawaii (1) 1,050

For the 2nd time this season, 6 teams get #1 votes in the AP poll (the last time it occurred before this season was 1990), and yes, someone accepted my challenge to vote Hawaii #1 (though I’m doubting my challenge influenced that decision…).

Now, this is the AP poll, so it isn’t in the BCS, but it could give us an idea of how at least the Harris poll might vote (since it seems to vote similarly to the AP Poll). Remember, the actual rank of teams doesn’t matter in the BCS, it’s the number of points that matter. So let’s see the scores all of the BCS #2 hopefuls would get if the AP poll were in the BCS:

LSU: 0.9348
Oklahoma: 0.8757
Georgia: 0.8745
Virginia Tech: 0.8492
Southern Cal: 0.8283

If these teams keep the same computer rankings from last week (I know that won’t happen, but it could simulate if the margin between them in the computers stay constant), the rankings would shake out thus:

LSU: 0.8865
Georgia: 0.8597
Virginia Tech: 0.8361
Oklahoma: 0.7671
Southern Cal: 0.7655

Since Oklahoma and Southern Cal both had double-digit computer rankings coming into the week, I would find it difficult for either of them to slip into the #2 spot. They’d have to be clear #2 in the polls and that isn’t happening. The question will become how much LSU can gain in the computers, and how many people will move them to 2nd in the polls.

Given the man juice being created over LSU last night on the TV, I find it no surprise that LSU is #2 in the AP poll. The question is where will they be in the Harris and Coaches? They jumped from 5th to 2nd in the AP, only jumping over Georgia. They’re 7th in the Coaches poll, however. (they’re also 5th in the Harris).

The other implication of all this is that Kansas may not get an automatic bid into the BCS, giving the Fiesta Bowl the option to choose Arizona State if they wish.

And just for kicks, here is the average rank of the top 6 teams on ballots:

Ohio State: 1.7 (the average rank of those who didn’t rank OSU 1st was around 4th)
LSU: 2.6 (average rank of those who didn’t rank LSU 1st was around 3rd)
Oklahoma: 4.1
Georgia: 4.1
Virginia Tech: 4.8
Southern Cal: 5.3

Interpret that as you may.

Seriously, someone look for Harry Potter or something.  There is a curse on the #2 ranking this year.  In 7 weeks, the AP #2 team has lost 5 times:

Week 6: #2 Southern Cal 23, Stanford 24
Week 7: #2 California 28, Oregon State 31
Week 8: #2 South Florida 27, Rutgers 30
Week 10: #2 Boston College 17, Florida State 27
Week 12: #2 Oregon 24, Arizona 34

In the 7 other weeks, LSU won six times as the #2 team - in two different stints, the first being weeks 1 through 5, then in week 11 as well -  and Boston College won once, in week 9.  That’s right.  Six different teams have been #2 in 12 weeks.  LSU is 6-0 and the other 5 teams are a combined 1-5 as #2.

Assuming Kansas defeats Iowa State this weekend, they’ll take the #2 mantle just in time to roll into Kansas City to play red-hot Missouri.  And if Missouri wins that game, it’s likely they’ll roll into the Big 12 Championship game against….#2 Oklahoma (assuming Missouri doesn’t jump them in the polls).  Missouri may actually like that scenario.

Of course, if that occurs, it seems likely that they’ll play LSU in the national championship game - the only team not to lose as the #2 team this year - as the #2 team.

Oh, and don’t look now but the Oregon loss yesterday suddenly puts Arizona State back in the drivers seat for the Pac 10 title again.  However, if Southern Cal defeats Arizona State on Thanksgiving Day, Oregon, once again, is back in front, assuming they win their games.

Not that I’m complaining, but I’m shocked the AP voters moved South Florida up to #2 - with 11 #1 votes for that matter. It’s no shock, however, that Ohio State is #1. Boston College is #3 in the AP and #2 in the Coaches poll with South Florida landing at #3 in the coaches.

Oklahoma falls in at #4 in both and, I think a little surprisingly, LSU comes in at #5 in both polls, so they’re in great position to get back into the title hunt.

South Carolina, Oregon, Kentucky, West Virginia, and California round out the top 10 in the AP while Oregon, West Virginia, South Carolina, Cal, and USC (who are tied for 9th) round out the top 10 in the coaches poll.

#12 Arizona State in the AP also received a #1 vote.

Hawaii actually moved down a spot in the AP poll to #17 - with only Cincinnati dropping below them, but both Kentucky and Kansas jumping over them. Hawaii stayed the same in the Coaches poll.

Three new teams join the AP Poll: #22 Texas Tech, #24 Michigan, and #25 Kansas State; while four new teams jump into the coaches poll: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Virginia, and Penn State. By the way, Michigan is a mere 1 point out of the top 25 in the coaches poll.

I don’t know when I’ve seen 6 different teams get #1 votes in the AP poll outside of the preseason poll or the first few weeks of the season, as Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College, Oklahoma, LSU (yes, LSU got a #1 vote despite losing), and Arizona State all receive #1 votes.

Edit: Thank you ESPN for answering this: the last time six teams received #1 votes after the first month of the season was on Nov. 25, 1990. In that poll, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Miami, Brigham Young, Texas, and Florida all had #1 votes. Six teams had recieved #1 votes the week before as well, after #1 Notre Dame lost.

The coaches poll is a little more sane with only the top 3 teams getting #1 votes.

The Harris poll isn’t out yet that I see, but we can look at the coaches poll and how it will influence the BCS ratings. Remember, the ranking doesn’t matter - it’s the number of points you get that matter.

There are 1500 total possible points in the Coaches poll, and here are the percentage breakdown for the top 5 teams:

Ohio State - 0.9967 (+ 0.0747)
Boston College - 0.9220 (+ 0.0420)
South Florida - .8800 (+ 0.0213)
Oklahoma - 0.8587 (+ 0.0767)
LSU - 0.7820

So clearly, the closest gap is between South Florida and Oklahoma.

As for the computers - only Sagarin is out, but here is his top 10:

1. South Florida
2. LSU
3. South Carolina
4. Kentucky
5. Boston College
6. Kansas
7. Ohio State
8. West Virginia
9. Arizona State
10. Virginia Tech

How about others? Oklahoma is 12th. California is 14th. Oregon is 19th. Southern Cal is 35th.

As for the other polls, what did they look like last week?

Billingsly had Ohio State #2, South Florida #3, Boston College #5, West Virginia #6, and South Carolina #7, with LSU #1 and Cal #3. Oklahoma was way down at #18.

Last Week, Colley had LSU #1, Arizona State #2, South Florida #3, Ohio State #4, Missouri #5, Cal #6, South Carolina #7, Boston College #8, Illinois #9, and Cincinnati #10. Oklahoma was way down at #20.

Meanwhile, Massey had LSU #1, South Florida #2, Missouri #3, Boston College #4, Ohio State #5, South Carolina #6, Arizona State #7, Cal #8, Illinois #9, and Virginia Tech #10. Once again, Oklahoma was way down at 30th.

The Wolfe and Anderson/Hester rankings don’t release rankings until the BCS starts coming out.

Things look great for South Florida to slide into the #2 slot I think, depending on how things shake out in the Harris poll. Out of the computer polls that we can see numbers for, South Florida leads Boston College in all 4. I’ll take a stab and say they’re average lead over Boston College is going to be around 2 spots. Not only that, but South Florida looks to be #1 or #2 in all 4 of those poll - #1 in two of them. But Boston College isn’t too far behind.

Ohio State is hurting in some of these - at 7th in the poll already out and looking to be #1 in probably 1 of the other 3 - their lead in the human polls should be more than enough to have them at #1 in the BCS.

The huge loser here is Oklahoma, whose best ranking is #12 in the Sagarin poll already released, and was ranked in the 20s or lower in 2 of the other 3 polls last week. Oklahoma may not even be in the BCS top 5 with those numbers.

If I had to guess, here is how the BCS will turn out:

1. Ohio State
2. South Florida (but very, very, very close to Boston College)
3. Boston College
4. LSU
5. West Virginia

Wow, the pollsters must love South Florida now.  I don’t know if I would have jumped them as much as they did, but the Bulls are now #6 in the AP and #9 in the Coaches poll - the highest ranked team in the state of Florida, at least in the AP (Florida only dropped 4 spots in the Coaches, so they’re still #7).

South Florida for the national championship anyone?  Of course, they still have a tough schedule left, having to still play at Rutgers, at UConn, vs. Cincinnati, and vs. Louisville (they’re a combined 16-3).  The only real hit on the Bulls is their lackluster out of conference schedule, which consists of I-AA Elon, 1-4 UNC, 3-2 Florida Atlantic from the Sun Belt, with 3-1 Central Florida being their only real good out of conference game.

However, there is a good chance that the Bulls will be 6-0 and possibly a top-5 team going into their game at Rutgers October 18th.

As I suspected, Kentucky is in the top 10 as well, ranked #8 in both polls, and they become the highest ranked team in the SEC East in the AP poll as well.  However, Kentucky is looking at a very tough road ahead in the month of October as they have to play at South Carolina, then at home against LSU, Florida, and resurgent Mississippi State on consecutive weeks.

Also, as I thought, LSU also takes over #1 in the AP poll with 33 #1 votes to USC’s 32, but USC maintains their #1 ranking in the coaches poll.  LSU is ahead of USC by a mere 2 points in the AP poll.  LSU closed the gap, but not as much as I thought, in the coaches poll.

Boston College also joins the top 10.

See the AP Top 25 | See the USA Today Coaches Top 25 

Not much movement at the top of the polls this week, except for Penn State dropping because they lost.

The AP poll saw Oklahoma jump Florida for 3rd, which isn’t surprising considering Oklahoma has been obliterating everyone they’ve played, and Florida had a rough time with Mississippi.  I’m just surprised they’re not getting any #1 votes.

Biggest climbers this week appear to be Kentucky and Georgia, both at +7, and Arizona State, Cincinnati, Missouri, and South Florida, all at+5.  Not surprisingly, the biggest drops were Penn State (-11) and Alabama (-6).  Louisville and Texas A&M dropped out.

Similar movement in the Coaches poll, with Michigan State moving up 9 spots (do teams normally do that after beating an 0-3 team?), Kentucky moving up 8 spots, Purdue and South Florida moving up 6 spots, Georgia and Missouri 5 spots.  Penn State dropped 9, but Alabama only dropped 4.  Again, Texas A&M and Louisville drop out.

And I like how Michigan is starting to get votes again…amazing what beating Penn State can do.