Code Orange

Things fell out pretty much as expected:

National Championship: Ohio State vs. LSU
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Hawaii
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Kansas
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. Southern Cal

I guess I’m a little surprised that the Orange went with Kansas instead of West Virginia, but perhaps the Fiesta didn’t want an all-Big 12 matchup.

I think this season has shown more than any other that a playoff is needed. Sports Illustrated Online had a headline up earlier today which read “Give LSU a shot.” Well what happens if LSU takes that shot and misses? Well, sorry Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, and Georgia, LSU is the only team who is able to take that shot. Even if you ended up being the better team, tough. And of course, if LSU wins the championship, those teams won’t get their own shot at LSU.

The BCS doesn’t help itself by posting news stories which are written by people who sound like whiny children trying to defend something which they know is broken:

Now that the most compelling, entertaining and dramatic college football season in recent memory is drawing to a close, sportswriters and broadcasters are doing what they always do at this time of the year.

They’re crafting lies to convince you that major-college football is in disarray and in dire need of a playoff system to save itself.

Of course, it is ironic that this article was written before this weekend, and uses the basis that Missouri and West Virginia appeared to be a clear #1 and #2 to “prove” that the BCS works:

Right now the system has settled on MU and West Virginia. Those names are allegedly not big enough for some writers and broadcasters.

Oops. And of course, there is the usual “with a playoff, no one would care about the regular season!”:

Critics of college football won’t do that. The current, no-playoff system gives us great September and October story lines.

Of course, the problem with this is three-fold. The first is that in every sport with a playoff (i.e. every sport other than Division I-A college football), people still enjoy the regular season. Why? Because it still matters. You’re still playing to see who gets in the playoffs.

The argument for maximizing the meaning of the regular season, which is used to justify selecting two and only two teams to play for a championship, could just as easily be used to justify a system where no championship game is played at all. Heck, that’s the way to maximize the meaning of the season, isn’t it? Don’t even have a post season. Ohio State wins the title. Tough luck, LSU.

The second problem is that, ironically, in college football more than just about any other sport, the regular season gives you the least clear, most muddied picture of the landscape possible. In the NFL, for example, any given team plays 37.5% of the teams in the league. Not perfect, but at least it’s a third. Yet the NFL still puts 37.5% of the league into the playoffs, largely because, even with playing over a third of the league, you can’t necessarily declare the team with the best record champion, because they haven’t necessarily played everyone.

In college football it’s even worse. Any given team plays, at most, 10.8% of the teams, and that’s if you play a 12 game schedule, and a conference championship game, against 13 different I-A teams. No re-matches (as Missouri/Oklahoma and Virginia Tech/Boston College were) and no I-AA games (Appalachian State vs. Michigan anyone?). Most teams will play only 10% of I-A teams, and a good portion will play even a lower percentage than that.

Yet, we’re willing to select two - and only two - teams to play the championship. Teams who have played a combined 20% of Division I-A college football teams…maybe. In other words, 80% of all the teams in football have no direct say in who the national champion will be. So what’s this about the regular season being meaningful? In the current system, it is anything but meaningful. All 6 BCS Conference champions could go undefeated, and you’d still only have 2 teams who have played only 20% of all teams playing for the title. How is that even remotely fair or meaningful?

What if Division I-AA has this system? You’d probably have seen Northern Iowa vs. Montana in the championship game. It’s now the semifinals and both of those teams have been eliminated, and a third previously undefeated team, McNeese State, has lost as well. Tell Delaware, Southern Illinois, Appalachian State, and Richmond that they can’t have a chance at the national title because a team in another conference who they never even got a chance to play went undefeated against the few teams in the division that they actually play.

Third, having a playoff would eliminate the need for poll “corrections” like the ones we saw today - where all three polls felt compelled to “correct’ their rankings to make sure LSU got into the title.

What? Are you telling me that LSU really WASN’T the #7 team going into this past weekend? If not, why did you rank them there? If you never intended to put Georgia into the title game, why did you put them in a position where, if the impossible happened like it did on Saturday, they would be in line to play for the championship? If LSU was better than Georgia because they merely played in the conference title, why was LSU ranked below Georgia to start with? Or Why was Oklahoma ranked below them? Or Virginia Tech?

This is a matter of consistency for the polls, and to have the first 13 polls of the season be based on the previous poll with rewards and punishments for winning and losing, and then using the final poll as a do-over is dangerously close to scandalous in my opinion.

Do you really think that a 7-point win over a 4-loss Tennessee team who lead most of the game justifies jumping LSU 5 spots up? At least Oklahoma could theoretically argue for such a move since they convincingly defeated the #1 ranked team in the nation.

Meanwhile, Virginia Tech, who hasn’t lost to an unranked team all year and who avenged one of their losses convincingly Saturday, goes nowhere in the polls. How does this make sense other than people “deciding” that LSU was going to be #2 and that they were just going to “make it happen,” no matter how little sense it made given the current rankings.

Week after week, year after year, we hear people complaining how people vote in the polls, saying that you should vote for who you think the best team is, and not necessarily punish a team who loses but who clearly seems like the better team. Week after week, year after year, the voters ignore their own complaining and vote as they always have. That is until voting as they always have suddenly becomes inconvenient when they have a certain matchup for the championship in mind.

It would kind of like being an umpire in a baseball game who is calling balls and strikes a certain way and has called them in a consistent manner through a game. Then suddenly in the 9th inning they decide they want one of the two teams to win, but that team is trailing.  As a result they decide to change how they’re calling balls and strikes to try to ensure the team they want to win will win.

Sorry, if this is how you’ve been doing your rankings all season, it is disingenuous to suddenly decide to do a “do-over” because you put yourself into a position which would end with an undesirable result if you did your rankings like you always do.  Unfortunately there is little that anyone can do about it.

It’s the first actual BCS Human poll, and it’s looking good for LSU.  Here is the Coaches poll top 10:

1. Ohio State (46) 1,469
2. LSU (11) 1,418
3. Oklahoma (2) 1,331
4. Georgia 1,277
5. Virginia Tech 1,242
6. Southern California 1,227
7. Missouri 1,104
8. Kansas 1,099
9. West Virginia 1,010
10. Hawaii (1) 994

Once again, it’s the points that matter, not the rank, so here are the scores that will go into the BCS:

LSU:  0.945
Oklahoma: 0.887
Georgia: 0.851
Virginia Tech: 0.828
Southern Cal: 0.818

Given Oklahoma’s computer disadvantage, this will put LSU in the title game. Unless the Harris poll rebels against what the AP and Coaches poll is doing - and I doubt they will - I see no way for Georgia to make up this distance in the computer rankings.  LSU will play Ohio State for the national title.

As a result, I predict the BCS as thus:

1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Georgia
4. Virginia Tech
5. Oklahoma
If you’re curios, here are the changes from last week:

LSU: +5 ranks, +284 points (average +4.7 spots per ballot)
Oklahoma: +5 ranks, +205 points (average +3.4 spots per ballot)
Georgia: No rank change, +45 points, (average +0.8 spots per ballot)
Virginia Tech: No rank change, +81 points, (average +1.4 spots per ballot)
Southern Cal: +4 ranks, +154 points (average +2.6 spots per ballot)

This clearly shows a concerted effort to put Oklahoma and especially LSU into the title game. It’s interesting that LSU got a bigger per-ballot increase (4.7 spots) for defeating a 4-loss now-18th ranked Tennessee than Oklahoma got (3.4 spots) for defeating the then-#1, now-#7 ranked team Missouri.

I also think there are four damning portions to this poll:

1) Clearly there was an effort to make LSU the #2 team.  This can be seen from the fact that LSU is actually closer to #1 Ohio State than they are #3 Oklahoma.  People intentionaly put as much distance between LSU and Georgia to make computers a non-factor (knowing that Oklahoma would need to be a very strong #2 to get in despite their computer rankings)

2) Virginia Tech defeated Boston College, yet got leapfrogged by both LSU and Oklahoma, who both rose 5 spots.  Virginia Tech defeated a better team than Tennessee (and by a larger margin), yet hardly moved at all.  They only gained 1.4 spots per ballot even though 2 teams ahead of them lost.  It’s clear that, for the first and only time this year, people were voting based on who they wanted in the title game rather than how they usually vote.

If people think that polls should always show show they think should be in the title game - then they should vote that way.  LSU would have been in the top 2 all year, despite losing twice then.  If they think you should punish people for losing, and rewarding people for winning - and being consistent in those punishments and rewards - then do it every week, not just all the weeks except the final week.

3) To ensure Kansas couldn’t make it (and possibly screwing the Jayhawks out of a BCS bid), they were dropped 3 spots despite 2 teams ahead of them losing.  USC, Oklahoma, and LSU all jumpted ahead, and Virginia Tech, whom Kansas was tied with before, moved ahead, while Missouri remained ahead of Kansas despite losing.

This also goes towards the “vote the same way every week in the poll” point above.

4) There might also be an effort to squeeze Hawaii out of the BCS.  Hawaii was 12th last week in the BCS - right on the minimum rank in the BCS to get an auto-bid.  Arizona State, the 13th ranked team, actually jumped Florida in the Coaches poll to gain a position and 144 points.  Hawaii, meanwhile, only gained 38 points.

Boston College, the only team directly above Hawaii to lose, only dropped two positions and lost 244 points.  That should drop Boston College under Hawaii, leaving them 12th even if Arizona jumps over them, but it will be close.  Illinois, another team under Hawaii, also jumped up a rank and gained 100 points in the polls - though that was mostly at BC’s expense.

The AP Poll has been released, and here are the rankings:

1. Ohio State (50) 1,578
2. LSU (11) 1,519
3. Oklahoma (1) 1,423
4. Georgia (1) 1,421
5. Virginia Tech (1) 1,380
6. USC 1,346
7. Missouri 1,195
8. Kansas 1,164
9. Florida 1,071
10. Hawaii (1) 1,050

For the 2nd time this season, 6 teams get #1 votes in the AP poll (the last time it occurred before this season was 1990), and yes, someone accepted my challenge to vote Hawaii #1 (though I’m doubting my challenge influenced that decision…).

Now, this is the AP poll, so it isn’t in the BCS, but it could give us an idea of how at least the Harris poll might vote (since it seems to vote similarly to the AP Poll). Remember, the actual rank of teams doesn’t matter in the BCS, it’s the number of points that matter. So let’s see the scores all of the BCS #2 hopefuls would get if the AP poll were in the BCS:

LSU: 0.9348
Oklahoma: 0.8757
Georgia: 0.8745
Virginia Tech: 0.8492
Southern Cal: 0.8283

If these teams keep the same computer rankings from last week (I know that won’t happen, but it could simulate if the margin between them in the computers stay constant), the rankings would shake out thus:

LSU: 0.8865
Georgia: 0.8597
Virginia Tech: 0.8361
Oklahoma: 0.7671
Southern Cal: 0.7655

Since Oklahoma and Southern Cal both had double-digit computer rankings coming into the week, I would find it difficult for either of them to slip into the #2 spot. They’d have to be clear #2 in the polls and that isn’t happening. The question will become how much LSU can gain in the computers, and how many people will move them to 2nd in the polls.

Given the man juice being created over LSU last night on the TV, I find it no surprise that LSU is #2 in the AP poll. The question is where will they be in the Harris and Coaches? They jumped from 5th to 2nd in the AP, only jumping over Georgia. They’re 7th in the Coaches poll, however. (they’re also 5th in the Harris).

The other implication of all this is that Kansas may not get an automatic bid into the BCS, giving the Fiesta Bowl the option to choose Arizona State if they wish.

And just for kicks, here is the average rank of the top 6 teams on ballots:

Ohio State: 1.7 (the average rank of those who didn’t rank OSU 1st was around 4th)
LSU: 2.6 (average rank of those who didn’t rank LSU 1st was around 3rd)
Oklahoma: 4.1
Georgia: 4.1
Virginia Tech: 4.8
Southern Cal: 5.3

Interpret that as you may.

Seriously, someone look for Harry Potter or something.  There is a curse on the #2 ranking this year.  In 7 weeks, the AP #2 team has lost 5 times:

Week 6: #2 Southern Cal 23, Stanford 24
Week 7: #2 California 28, Oregon State 31
Week 8: #2 South Florida 27, Rutgers 30
Week 10: #2 Boston College 17, Florida State 27
Week 12: #2 Oregon 24, Arizona 34

In the 7 other weeks, LSU won six times as the #2 team - in two different stints, the first being weeks 1 through 5, then in week 11 as well -  and Boston College won once, in week 9.  That’s right.  Six different teams have been #2 in 12 weeks.  LSU is 6-0 and the other 5 teams are a combined 1-5 as #2.

Assuming Kansas defeats Iowa State this weekend, they’ll take the #2 mantle just in time to roll into Kansas City to play red-hot Missouri.  And if Missouri wins that game, it’s likely they’ll roll into the Big 12 Championship game against….#2 Oklahoma (assuming Missouri doesn’t jump them in the polls).  Missouri may actually like that scenario.

Of course, if that occurs, it seems likely that they’ll play LSU in the national championship game - the only team not to lose as the #2 team this year - as the #2 team.

Oh, and don’t look now but the Oregon loss yesterday suddenly puts Arizona State back in the drivers seat for the Pac 10 title again.  However, if Southern Cal defeats Arizona State on Thanksgiving Day, Oregon, once again, is back in front, assuming they win their games.

It’s a little late, but here are my rankings for Week 9.  This does not take into account the games from Thursday or Friday night:

1. Ohio State (8-0) [–]
2. Boston College (7-0) [–]
3. West Virginia (6-1) [+1]
4. Oklahoma (7-1) [-1]
5. Oregon (6-1) [–]
6. LSU (7-1) [+2]
7. Viginia Tech (6-1) [+2]
8. Southern Cal (6-1) [+3]
9. Florida (5-2) [+5]
10. Hawaii (7-0) [+3]
11. Arizona State (7-0) [+4]
12. South Florida (6-1) [-5]
13. Kansas (7-0) [+4]
14. Kentucky (6-2) [-4]
15. Missouri (6-1) [+3]
16. Texas (6-2) [–]
17. Georgia (5-2) [+2]
18. South Carolina (6-2) [-12]
19. Wisconsin (6-2) [+2]
20. Virginia (7-1) [+3]
21. Michigan (6-2) [+4]
22. California (5-2) [-10]
23. Texas A&M (6-2) [NR]
24. Alabama (6-2) [NR]
25. Connecticut (6-1) [NR]

Dropped Out: Cincinnati, Auburn, Texas Tech

Waiting in the Wings:  Air Force, Boise State, Brigham Young, Penn State, Rutgers, Texas Tech, UCLA

Not that I’m complaining, but I’m shocked the AP voters moved South Florida up to #2 - with 11 #1 votes for that matter. It’s no shock, however, that Ohio State is #1. Boston College is #3 in the AP and #2 in the Coaches poll with South Florida landing at #3 in the coaches.

Oklahoma falls in at #4 in both and, I think a little surprisingly, LSU comes in at #5 in both polls, so they’re in great position to get back into the title hunt.

South Carolina, Oregon, Kentucky, West Virginia, and California round out the top 10 in the AP while Oregon, West Virginia, South Carolina, Cal, and USC (who are tied for 9th) round out the top 10 in the coaches poll.

#12 Arizona State in the AP also received a #1 vote.

Hawaii actually moved down a spot in the AP poll to #17 - with only Cincinnati dropping below them, but both Kentucky and Kansas jumping over them. Hawaii stayed the same in the Coaches poll.

Three new teams join the AP Poll: #22 Texas Tech, #24 Michigan, and #25 Kansas State; while four new teams jump into the coaches poll: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Virginia, and Penn State. By the way, Michigan is a mere 1 point out of the top 25 in the coaches poll.

I don’t know when I’ve seen 6 different teams get #1 votes in the AP poll outside of the preseason poll or the first few weeks of the season, as Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College, Oklahoma, LSU (yes, LSU got a #1 vote despite losing), and Arizona State all receive #1 votes.

Edit: Thank you ESPN for answering this: the last time six teams received #1 votes after the first month of the season was on Nov. 25, 1990. In that poll, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Miami, Brigham Young, Texas, and Florida all had #1 votes. Six teams had recieved #1 votes the week before as well, after #1 Notre Dame lost.

The coaches poll is a little more sane with only the top 3 teams getting #1 votes.

The Harris poll isn’t out yet that I see, but we can look at the coaches poll and how it will influence the BCS ratings. Remember, the ranking doesn’t matter - it’s the number of points you get that matter.

There are 1500 total possible points in the Coaches poll, and here are the percentage breakdown for the top 5 teams:

Ohio State - 0.9967 (+ 0.0747)
Boston College - 0.9220 (+ 0.0420)
South Florida - .8800 (+ 0.0213)
Oklahoma - 0.8587 (+ 0.0767)
LSU - 0.7820

So clearly, the closest gap is between South Florida and Oklahoma.

As for the computers - only Sagarin is out, but here is his top 10:

1. South Florida
2. LSU
3. South Carolina
4. Kentucky
5. Boston College
6. Kansas
7. Ohio State
8. West Virginia
9. Arizona State
10. Virginia Tech

How about others? Oklahoma is 12th. California is 14th. Oregon is 19th. Southern Cal is 35th.

As for the other polls, what did they look like last week?

Billingsly had Ohio State #2, South Florida #3, Boston College #5, West Virginia #6, and South Carolina #7, with LSU #1 and Cal #3. Oklahoma was way down at #18.

Last Week, Colley had LSU #1, Arizona State #2, South Florida #3, Ohio State #4, Missouri #5, Cal #6, South Carolina #7, Boston College #8, Illinois #9, and Cincinnati #10. Oklahoma was way down at #20.

Meanwhile, Massey had LSU #1, South Florida #2, Missouri #3, Boston College #4, Ohio State #5, South Carolina #6, Arizona State #7, Cal #8, Illinois #9, and Virginia Tech #10. Once again, Oklahoma was way down at 30th.

The Wolfe and Anderson/Hester rankings don’t release rankings until the BCS starts coming out.

Things look great for South Florida to slide into the #2 slot I think, depending on how things shake out in the Harris poll. Out of the computer polls that we can see numbers for, South Florida leads Boston College in all 4. I’ll take a stab and say they’re average lead over Boston College is going to be around 2 spots. Not only that, but South Florida looks to be #1 or #2 in all 4 of those poll - #1 in two of them. But Boston College isn’t too far behind.

Ohio State is hurting in some of these - at 7th in the poll already out and looking to be #1 in probably 1 of the other 3 - their lead in the human polls should be more than enough to have them at #1 in the BCS.

The huge loser here is Oklahoma, whose best ranking is #12 in the Sagarin poll already released, and was ranked in the 20s or lower in 2 of the other 3 polls last week. Oklahoma may not even be in the BCS top 5 with those numbers.

If I had to guess, here is how the BCS will turn out:

1. Ohio State
2. South Florida (but very, very, very close to Boston College)
3. Boston College
4. LSU
5. West Virginia

Well, that was an exciting day of college football. Thanks to MSNBC, I finally found out the last time both the #1 and #2 teams lost on the same day: September 21, 1996, when Arizona State defeated #1 Nebraska 19-0 (was that the game with the 3 Nebraska safeties?) and when Florida defeated #2 Tennessee 35-29.

No we have a situation where the top three teams lined up for the title game are Ohio State, Boston College, and South Florida, and I’m not sure any of them are odds-on favorites to go the rest of the way undefeated.

Even though the Big Ten has looked less than impressive, Ohio State still has games against 5-2 Michigan State, at 5-2 Penn State, vs. 5-2 Wisconsin, vs. 5-2 Illinois, and at 5-2 Michigan (yes, 7 of the 11 Big Ten teams are 5-2). If one can do some fast math, Ohio State’s final 5 opponents have a combined record of 25-10. That’s not an easy schedule to get through, and pretty much every single one of those teams could beat the Buckeyes.

Next, we have Boston College who doesn’t have a much easier road to travel, playing at 6-1 Virginia Tech, vs. 4-2 Florida State, at 4-2 Maryland, at 4-2 Clemson, and vs. 4-3 Miami. And of course there would be the ACC Championship game, which would either be a rematch against Virginia Tech or against a currently 6-1 Virginia team.

South Florida doesn’t have an easy road either, though they do at least get to play a pair of teams with losing records, unlike Ohio State and BC. South Florida must play at 4-2 Rutgers then at 5-1 Connecticut, then play at home against 5-1 Cincinnati, play at 1-6 Syracuse, play at home against 4-3 Louisville, and then at 2-4 Pittsburgh.

The good thing for South Florida is that they’re using two of their away games to play teams they should easily beat, and in return are playing 2 of the remaining big 3 at home (Cincinnati and Louisville).

How about the teams waiting in the wings? Again, no obvious team that will win the rest of their games appears.

Oklahoma? They still have Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State and, if they make it there, the Big 12 championship game.

South Carolina? They have yet to play Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida, and Clemson, not to mention a likely rematch with LSU in the SEC title game.

West Virginia? They have Rutgers, Louisville, and Cincinnati 3 weeks in a row - two of them on the road.

Oregon? Oregon is actually in better shape than most of the teams ahead of them, but they still have Arizona State and Southern Cal.

How about LSU? LSU, despite losing, may be in the best shape of all with only 2 ranked teams left on their schedule - assuming the team they play in the SEC title game is ranked. Other than that, they have Auburn, Alabama, and Arkansas - all potential pitfalls, but none of which are games which I think they are in dire jeopardy of losing.

And how does Hawaii fit into all of this? Looking at the polls from last week, this is what I see: Hawaii was 16th. Cincinnati and Missouri should drop below them for losing, though Kentucky will probably jump over them, so there is 15th. Then lets look at all the teams above them who have yet to play each other, and how many teams above them will lose at least once more:

• Kentucky vs. South Carolina (1)
• Florida vs. Kentucky (2)
• Florida vs. South Carolina (3)
• LSU vs. Winner of SEC East - which will either be UK, SC, or Florida, or all three of the above teams will lose along the way (4)
• Boston College vs. Virginia Tech (5)
• Oregon vs. USC (6)
• Oregon vs. Arizona State (7)
• Arizona State vs. Cal (8 - assuming Cal falls in ahead of Hawaii)
• Arizona State vs. USC (9)
• Cal vs. USC (10)

So, in the worst case scenario for Hawaii, 6 teams ahead of them would lose (I figured LSU would win the SEC, meaning South Carolina, Kentucky, and Florida would all lose again, that Oregon and Cal win out - meaning Arizona State and USC lose again, and of course the loser of Boston College/Virginia Tech).

That means, if Hawaii wins out - WORST case, they should be in the top 10 at the end of the season - meaning they would be an almost certain BCS lock. Meanwhile, what happens if all hell breaks lose and everyone ahead of them loses again? Hawaii is probably definitely looking at a top 5.

The problem for them as far as getting into the title game is strength of schedule. Hawaii has played two I-AA teams, 2-5 UNLV, and are scheduled to play 2-4 Washington. And then there is the WAC schedule, where only two other teams besides themselves have winning records. I just don’t see it happening unless every other team has at least 2 losses.

In any case, I think Ohio State will clearly be #1 with Boston College in as a clear #2. We may see an interesting battle with #3 - will pollsters really put South Florida ahead of Oklahoma for the National Championship, even though Oklahoma has a loss? I’ll go out on a limb and say Oklahoma slips in at #3, with South Florida #4, and South Carolina #5.

and in any case, here are my personal rankings:

1. Ohio State (+2)
2. Boston College (+2)
3. Oklahoma (+2)
4. West Virginia (+2)
5. Oregon (+3)
6. South Carolina (+1)
7. South Florida (+2)
8. LSU (-7)
9. Virginia Tech (+2)
10. Kentucky (+6)
11. Southern Cal (+3)
12. California (-10)
13. Hawaii (+2)
14. Florida (+3)
15. Arizona State (+4)
16. Texas (+4)
17. Kansas (+5)
18. Missouri (-5)
19. Georgia (+1)
20. Cincinnati (-10)
21. Wisconsin (-9)
22. Texas Tech (N/A)
23. Virginia (+1)
24. Auburn (+1)
25. Michigan (N/A)

Dropped Out: #21 Illinois, #23 Texas A&M

Waiting in the Wings: Air Force, Alabama, Boise State (assuming they win today), Michigan State, Navy, Penn State, Texas A&M

OK, tell me how Southern California loses to Stanford, and only drops 8 spots in the AP poll and 6 spots in the Coaches poll, yet Wisconsin loses to now 5-1 and #18/19 ranked Illinois, and they drop 14 spots in the AP and 10 spots in the Coaches poll? I can at least see dropping them 10 spots for being in the top 5 and losing, but why does USC stay in the top 10? For that matter, why does Florida drop 7 spots in the Coaches poll for almost beating now #1 LSU?

Look, I’m generally a fan of the Pac 10 and think they don’t get as much respect as other conference (though that finally seems to have changed this year), and I have a major beef against the SEC, but dropping Florida - who lost to #1 (and deservedly so) LSU - more than USC, who lost to lowly previously 1-win Stanford, goes beyond stupid. Other than just voting for USC because they’re USC, it makes absolutely no sense and a stain on college football polling I think. I know that the polls often give preference to big name teams for the most part, but that’s ridiculous.

It just doesn’t make sense. And why is 5-1 Purdue still in the Coaches poll and why is 3-2 Tennessee back in the AP poll? Aren’t 5-1 Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Indiana, or Virginia good enough yet? What about 5-0 Connecticut, who isn’t even in the top 30 of either poll if you go through “others receiving votes.” How about 4-1 Wyoming who beat Virginia, and gets a grand total of 20 total points in both polls combined (only 2 in the AP!)

While the entire SEC East sans Vanderbilt is ranked (and knowing the pollsters, they would be too if they had beaten Auburn), we have all these other undefeated or 1-loss teams being looked over because they’re only Wyoming or only Indiana and why should we rank “only Wyoming” over the grand power that is Tennessee?

Well, the polls get completely messed up again this week as another 4 top-10 teams lose, bringing up the total for 9 in the past week in the AP poll and a total of 11 top-25 teams losing (making a total of 20 over the past 2 weeks in the AP poll and 21 in the coaches poll).

What this does is two things: gives teams who don’t normally get a shot at being ranked a shot at being ranked, and also gives teams who messed up last week a great opportunity to jump almost back to where they were before their loss.

So, Let’s look at what to look for when the polls come out:

1) Who drops out, Who Jumps in?

We’re looking at at least 5 teams (Rutgers, Clemson, Purdue, Kansas State, and Nebraska) and maybe 6 (Texas) drop out of the AP poll and probably 5 dropping out of the coaches poll (unless they drop Texas from 16th all the way out).  That brings up the question - who replaces those teams?

I think there are currently 3 obvious teams who will fill the void: Illinois, Kansas, and Texas A&M.  Except for Texas A&M, they all beat top-25 teams and have either 1 loss or are undefeated.  To me, these three are no brainers.  But who else, since that’s only 3 and we’re going to have at least 5 new spots?

I think teams like Florida State, Indiana, Texas Tech, and Virginia - all with only 1 loss and in BCS Conferences - all have arguments for getting in.  Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee are a trio of SEC teams with 2-losses who could also make an argument for being ranked.  And what about Connecticut - undefeated in the Big East, though they still haven’t really played anyone yet.

As for possible non-BCS teams, Boise State could jump back into the Top 25 pretty soon, and 1-loss Wyoming has a strong argument as well.

2) How far to they fall?

This applies to several teams, but specifically to Southern Cal, Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Florida - the four top-10 teams who lost.  Florida lost to #1 LSU, and only after they gave up a touchdown with only a minute to go, so Florida may only be looking at a 4-spot drop or so - enough to keep them within sight of the top 10 if teams ahead of them slip up.

The other SEC team in the group - Kentucky - also lost to a ranked South Carolina team, so their fall shouldn’t be so bad either - they probably should at least stay in the top 20, if not the top 15.

Wisconsin and USC are different matters, however.  Wisconsin’s drop may be salvaged by the fact that Illinois will now almost certainly be ranked, so they will probably stay in the top 15.  USC will probably stay in the top 15, just because they’d have to drop more than 13 spots to drop out of it - but given that they lost to Stanford, it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility.  USC has looked less-than-stellar all season, and LSU has been eating into their #1 votes all year, so pollsters already had doubts about them.

3) How Far to They Jump?

With a loss of 2 top-10 SEC teams this week (Kentucky, Florida), another is ready to take their place - South Carolina.  Ranked 11 in the AP poll, they’re pretty much a lock for a top-10 spot in that poll.  Being ranked 18th in the coaches poll makes that trip a lot harder, though 6 teams ahead of them did lose, and they did beat the #8 team.

The other team who may jump a lot is Missouri, who destroyed ranked Nebraska last night.  Again, six teams ahead of them lost, so they could potentially be looking at a top-10 ranking as well.

Also, where do teams like Illinois and Kansas start in the top 25?  Are they in the 21-25 group, or do pollsters jump them straight into the top 20?

4) Who will be the top 5 and 10?

We shouldn’t need any trouble deciding who the top 3 will be - 1) LSU, 2) California, and 3) Ohio State, though it is conceivable that Ohio State could jump Cal for 2nd.

Who will the other 2 top 5 teams be, though?  I think the pollsters will be comfortable enough with putting Boston College in the top 5, but will they really put South Florida into the top 5, even with their close game against Florida Atlantic?  The problem for the pollsters is that there really isn’t anyone else close to jump them.  Oklahoma is currently ranked 10th and beat Texas, so if any team jumps South Florida for a top 5 spot, it could be them.

As for the rest of the top 10, I think, at least in the AP, LSU, Ohio State, California, Boston College, South Florida, Oklahoma, and South Carolina are locks for top 10 spots, along with probably West Virginia.  That leaves 2 more spots.  USC or Wisconsin not dropping as much as I think they will could fill those spots, and Oregon and Virginia Tech are next in line when you go down the rankings, but right below them you have Missouri and Cincinnati teams with big wins this weekend.  Can they jump over those bigger-named teams and get into the top 10?

That may be though, though.  That’d be a 10-spot jump for Cincinnati in the AP and a 14 jump spot in the coaches; while Missouri would need to jump 7 spots in both polls.

What type of college football world would we live in if the top 10 included South Florida, South Carolina, Cincinnati, and Missouri?

5) State of the Conference standings

Not really poll related, but it’s not too early to talk about conference championship races.

In the ACC Atlantic Division, Boston College is 1 game ahead of both Florida State and Maryland while they are 2 games ahead of Clemson and Wake Forest (due to defeating Wake).  BC looks like the team to beat in this division, but a possibly resurgent Florida State and a tricky Maryland team, not to mention a Clemson team who can play well on up weeks all could trip the Eagles up.

The ACC Coastal division has come down to Virginia and Virginia Tech, with those two teams still undefeated in the conference, and two or more games ahead of everyone but Miami, who doesn’t look like they’re much of a threat after being walloped by UNC for most of their game yesterday.

The Big East looks like it’s a four team race between Cincinnati, Connecticut, South Florida, and West Virginia now that Rutgers looks weaker than expected and Louisville is in a crash dive.  UConn is the biggest question mark here, since they still haven’t really played anyone.  The question is who will get through the mind field.  South Florida has already defeated West Virginia while Cincinnati has already gotten past Rutgers, but they still have to play 2 of the other 3 expected good teams, as well as each other.

The Big 10 race is still wide open with Ohio State, Illinos, and yes Michigan all still undefeated in the conference, with Wisconsin and Indiana close behind with only 1 conference loss.  Ohio State is clearly the team to beat, but they still have a long and tough road ahead.

Who would have thought that the Big 12 North could come down to Colorado, Missouri, and Kansas?  Yet that is exactly what it appears is the case as all 3 of those teams remain undefeated in conference play.   Meanwhile the Big 12 South is still wide open, but Texas A&M and Oklahoma have to be the odds-on favorites to win that division.

The Pac 10 got a gut check this weekend with USC losing a conference game to lowly Stanford and UCLA not exactly looking impressive against previously winless Notre Dame.  UCLA is still undefeated in the conference, but if they play like they did against Notre Dame in conference play, don’t expect that to last.  California is definitely the favorite to win the conference now, but Arizona State is still lurking, as well as their game against USC.

Finally, in the SEC, the eastern division is now lead by Tennessee, South Carolina, and Kentucky, now that Florida and Georgia both have 2 conference losses.  Tennessee is probably in the best position by already having played both the Gators and the Bulldogs and get a huge break by not having to play LSU.  They do still have South Carolina and Kentucky left, though.  The Gamecocks have already played Georgia and LSU, but have Tennessee and Florida left, while Kentucky has Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, and LSU all left to play.  The winner of the SEC East may end up having at least 2 conference losses after all is said and done.

LSU is only a game ahead of Auburn and Alabama in the Western Division, but have games with both of them in the next month.  LSU may be able to clench the division by the first weekend in November.

6) My Rankings

Well, a lot of losses in the top 25 again, so there are, expectedly, some shakeups in the poll:

1. LSU (–)
2. California (+1)
3. Ohio State (+1)
4. Boston College (+2)
5. Oklahoma (+5)
6. West Virginia (+3)
7. South Carolina (+8)
8. Oregon (+5)
9. South Florida (+3)
10. Cincinnati (+7)
11. Virginia Tech (+5)
12. Wisconsin (-7)
13. Missouri (+6)
14. Southern Cal (-12)
15. Hawaii (+3)
16. Kentucky (-9)
17. Florida (-6)
18. Georgia (-10)
19. Arizona State (+3)
20. Texas (-6)
21. Illinois (NA)
22. Kansas (NA)
23. Texas A&M  (NA)
24. Virginia (NA)
25. Auburn (NA)

Dropped Out: #20 Rutgers, #21 Clemson, #23 Nebraska, #24 Purdue, #25 UCLA

Waiting in the Wings:  Alabama, Boise state, Connecticut, Florida State, Indiana, Texas Tech, Wyoming

Wow, the pollsters must love South Florida now.  I don’t know if I would have jumped them as much as they did, but the Bulls are now #6 in the AP and #9 in the Coaches poll - the highest ranked team in the state of Florida, at least in the AP (Florida only dropped 4 spots in the Coaches, so they’re still #7).

South Florida for the national championship anyone?  Of course, they still have a tough schedule left, having to still play at Rutgers, at UConn, vs. Cincinnati, and vs. Louisville (they’re a combined 16-3).  The only real hit on the Bulls is their lackluster out of conference schedule, which consists of I-AA Elon, 1-4 UNC, 3-2 Florida Atlantic from the Sun Belt, with 3-1 Central Florida being their only real good out of conference game.

However, there is a good chance that the Bulls will be 6-0 and possibly a top-5 team going into their game at Rutgers October 18th.

As I suspected, Kentucky is in the top 10 as well, ranked #8 in both polls, and they become the highest ranked team in the SEC East in the AP poll as well.  However, Kentucky is looking at a very tough road ahead in the month of October as they have to play at South Carolina, then at home against LSU, Florida, and resurgent Mississippi State on consecutive weeks.

Also, as I thought, LSU also takes over #1 in the AP poll with 33 #1 votes to USC’s 32, but USC maintains their #1 ranking in the coaches poll.  LSU is ahead of USC by a mere 2 points in the AP poll.  LSU closed the gap, but not as much as I thought, in the coaches poll.

Boston College also joins the top 10.

See the AP Top 25 | See the USA Today Coaches Top 25