Code Orange

It’s the final week of the regular season and this is where everything will be decided.

Let’s start off with the BCS National Championship.  For once, who goes will be easy:

If Missouri defeats Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship game, they’re in the title game.  If West Virginia defeats Pittsburgh, they’re in the title game.  If either lose, Ohio State will get in.  If both lose, it will likely be Ohio State vs. Georgia.  Yes, Georgia.

As for getting into the BCS, West Virginia and Ohio State have already gained automatic bids by winning their conferences.  The winner of the Big 12 Championship will get an automatic bid, the winner of the ACC Championship game between Virginia Tech and Boston College will get an automatic bid, and the winner of the SEC Championship game will get an automatic bid.

The Pac 10 gets messy again.  Currently Southern Cal leads the Pac 10.  If they defeat UCLA today, they get into the BCS.  However, if Southern Cal loses, then the BCS bid falls to Arizona State - assuming they defeat Arizona tonight.  If both USC and Arizona State both lose, then it falls to Oregon - assuming they can defeat Oregon State.  If all 3 teams lose, then we’ll have a 4-way tie for the Pac 10 title between Arizona State, USC, Oregon State, and UCLA.  In the first round of head-to-head matchups, Arizona State is 2-1, USC would be 2-1, UCLA would be 2-1, and Oregon State would be 0-3.  That doesn’t really help us as now in this three-way tie-breaker, everyone is 1-1.

The next tie-breaker is to see how teams did against the next highest placing team in the conference down until we can break the tie.  Under this scenario it would be Arizona, as Arizona and Oregon would have 4 conference losses, and Arizona defeated Oregon.  Here, Arizona State would have lost, USC lost, and UCLA won.  That means, in the case of a 4-way tie, UCLA would win the Pac 10 (assuming I’m doing all of this correctly).

That takes care of our conference champions.  Georgia will get an automatic bid, either by being in the title game or due to the “Kansas State rule.” being an at-large placed at 3rd, or at 4th if the 3rd place team is a conference champion.

Hawaii is currently in 12th, which would give them an automatic bid into the BCS as well.  They don’t play until 11:30, so we won’t know until late to see if they still have a chance.  Looking at the BCS standings, they’ll want both Boston College and Oklahoma to lose, so that they’ll drop below Hawaii in the BCS.  They would also probably prefer an Arizona upset of Arizona State and for Tennessee to lose the SEC title to prevent the Sun Devils and Volunteers from hopping over them.

However, there is still one more way Hawaii could get in, and the Pac 10 could help.  The well known rule is that a non-BCS team must place in the top 12 of the BCS to get an automatic bid.  However, they can also place in the top 16 and finish above one of the BCS conference champions.  If Oregon or UCLA win the Pac 10 today, Hawaii would likely finish higher than them in the BCS (in fact, it would pretty much be certain in UCLA’s case) and, providing Hawaii wins, they should get in, even if they drop from 12th and stay above 16th.

As for the other 2 at-large teams, if it’s Missouri vs. West Virginia in the title, I don’t see how Kansas doesn’t fall into the Fiesta Bowl.  If Ohio State gets in, expect the Rose Bowl to pick up Illinois.  How about the last team.  That becomes interesting because the BCS field gets very thin after that.  If Missouri loses, they’re probably going to get the last at-large, but let’s assume a Missouri/West Virginia title game.  After going through the top 12, we’re likely still going to have a Fiesta Bowl spot to fill.  From what I can tell, possible teams going into that spot include Arizona State, Illinois, the loser of the ACC title game, USC if they lose to UCLA, Clemson, Oregon, and if they get high enough in the standings, Brigham Young.

You’d have to believe that this spot is most likely going to the Pac 10 unless the conference just melts down today.  If both Arizona State and USC win, expect this to go to Arizona State.   If USC loses, expect this spot to go to USC.  If they both lose, then it starts getting weird.  Perhaps a team like Illinois could sneak in.

The final weekend of football in Division I-AA football is this weekend, as well as first round playoff games (playoffs!? what a concept!) in Division II and Division III.

In Division I-AA, there are still three undefeated teams who can qualify for the playoffs: #2 Northern Iowa, #3 Montana, and #4 McNeese State (#1 North Dakota State is still a Division I transitional and thus isn’t eligible for the playoffs, while #11 Yale can’t go because of an Ivy League policy prohibiting their football teams from going to the playoffs.)

We also have conference championships to be determined and the 8 other I-AA playoff wildcard spots to be filled.  That bracket will be announced tomorrow.

Eight conferences earn automatic bids into the I-AA tournament, 6 have already been decided:

Big Sky Conference - Montana
Gateway Conference - Northern Iowa
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference - Delaware State
Ohio Valley Conference - Eastern Kentucky
Patriot League - Fordham
Southern Conference - Wofford

Meanwhile, two conference championships will be decided today:

Colonial Athletic Association

Four teams are still in contention for this conference title: #7 Massachusetts, #8 Richmond, #9 Delaware, and #13 James Madison.   And it can get messy in this conference.

Massachusetts and Richmond both sit with 6-1 conference records, yet they do not play each other.  Massachusetts plays at #22 Hofstra while Richmond plays at home against William and Mary.  If one of these teams wins and the other loses, then the winner will win the conference and earn the automatic bid.

If they both win, then they are technically co-champions, but the automatic bid will be determined by a majority vote by the conference’s Athletics Directors (excluding the ADs of the schools being voted on).

If both Massachsuetts and Richmond lose and James Madison wins, James Madison receives the automatic bid.

If Massachusetts, Richmond, and James Madison all lose and Delaware wins, then Delaware receives the automatic bid.

Southland Conference

The winner of the McNeeses State/Central Arkansas game will receive the automatic bid.

And then you have to start looking at possible at-large teams, and there are only 8 spots.

At the top of the list have to be #5 Southern Illinois, #6 Appalachian State, and the two teams in the Massachusetts, Richmond, and Delaware group who don’t the CAA automatic bid.  Even if these teams lose today, they are probably odds-on favorites for getting into the tournament (except for the CAA teams, since there are really 6 teams who are possibly in contention for bids, and getting more than 3 teams in may be asking a lot).

After that you get to #13 James Madison (can the CAA get 4 teams in the tournament? Has that ever happened before?), #15 Youngstown State, #15 Eastern Washington,  #17 Georgia Southern, #19 New Hampshire (another CAA team - it’s doubful that they’d get in ahead of JMU if the Dukes win, and I can’t see any conference getting 5 teams in), and #20 Eastern Illinois.

#18 Grambling can’t accept an invite since they already play a traditional game on Thanksgiving Day.

Meanwhile, in the Division II playoffs, here are the games on tap:

Ashland at Central Washington
Winona State at North Dakota
Mesa State at Abilene Christian
Washburn at West Texas A&M
Albany State at Catawba
Shaw at Delta State
Bryant at Southern Connecticut State
Indiana (PA) at West Chester

The top 8 seeds all get byes into the second round.  Also, this tournament is divided into 4 regions, with the four regional champions advancing to the semifinals.  In each region 6 teams go to the playoffs.

There was some controversy this year in the South Region where 10-1 Carson-Newman was ranked in the top 15 in the nation overall and #5 in the region, yet because of rules that allow any conference champion in the top 10 of the regional rankings to get a bid in to the tournament, Carson-Newman was left out.  Carson-Newman’s only loss was to Catawba.

Division III matchups today include the following:

Ithaca at Mount Union
TCNJ at Rensselaer
Hartwick at Curry
Hobart at St. John’s Fisher
Olivet at Central (IA)
Redlands at St. John’s (MN)
Wisconsin-Eau Claire at St. Norbert
Concordia (WI) at Bethel (MN)
North Carolina Wesleyan at Washington & Jefferson
Trinity (TX) [Yes, that Trinity] at Mary Hardin-Baylor
Salisbury at Muhlenberg
Hampden-Sydney at Wesley
Capital at Wisconsin-Whitewater
North Central (IL) at Franklin
Mt. St. Joseph at Wabash
Widener at Case Reserve

I’ll try to update these scores today if I can find them.

Ohio State (10-1) at Michigan (8-3) - 12:00 PM

This is obviously the biggest game this weekend as far as tradition, but it probably isn’t the biggest game in terms of importance.  In any case, this game is for a berth into the Rose Bowl, with the loser probably having to settle for the bowl formally known as the Citrus Bowl.

Missouri (9-1) at Kansas State (5-5) - 12:30 PM

This isn’t so much a game to watch as far as rankings or standings are concerned so much as this is Missouri’s final test before their showdown with Kansas next weekend in Kansas City.  However, a Missouri upset in conjunction with a Kansas win this weekend could give Kansas the Big 12 North title.

Bowling Green (6-4) at Buffalo (4-6) - 1:00 PM

Miami (OH) has already won their division of the MAC, but with only Kent State left to go on their schedule after this, a Buffalo win may mean the unthinkable - the Bulls may actually become bowl eligible.

Vanderbilt (5-5) at Tennessee (7-3) - 2:00 PM

This is an important game for both teams, as Vanderbilt is looking to become bowl eligible as Tennessee needs to only get past one more hurdle (Kentucky) before qualifying for the conference championship game if they can get by the Commodores.   LSU has already clenched the SEC West.

Duke (1-9) at Notre Dame (1-9) - 2:30 PM

I’m interested to see if the Blue Devils can really beat Notre Dame.  That might be the biggest win in program history, even if Notre Dame would be 1-10 afterwards.

Iowa State (3-8) at Kansas (10-0) - 3:30 PM

If Kansas wins this, they had into their final regular season game with Missouri undefeated and ranked #2 - something that may not be all that good.

Boston College (8-2) at Clemson (8-2) - 7:45 PM

All of a sudden, Clemson is back in the picture, thanks to Boston College’s collapse in the last two weeks.  The winner of this game clenches a spot in the ACC Championship game against the winner of the Virginia/Virginia Tech game next weekend.

West Virginia (8-1) at Cincinnati (8-2) - 7:45 PM 

Believe it or not, Cincinnati is still in the running for the Big East title and a BCS bid.  If they can upset the Mountaineers, and then if West Virginia defeats Connecticut next week, Cincinnati would hold the tie breaker.

In sort-of unrelated news.  Pittsburgh, of all teams, is still in the hunt for the conference title.  They’ve defeated Cincinnati and have West Virginia yet to play.  They’d need a lot of help, but if Cinci defeats West Virginia and West Virginia defeats UConn, there would be 4 teams in the Big East with 2 losses - assuming Pitt defeats Rutgers, of course.

This is a little late, so I’ll try to keep it short:

Kansas (4-0) at Kansas State (3-1) - 12:00 PM

This is a huge Big 12 North game, especially since the Northern Division actually looks like the stronger division, for once.  Can Kansas get to 5-0?  Kansas is one of the few undefeated teams still not ranked as well.

Wisconsin (5-0) at Illinois (4-1) - 12:00 PM

Much like the Kansas/KSU game, this game is very important in the Big Ten as Illinois is undefeated in the conference, and is very nearly undefeated overall.  This is a game in which Wisconsin could very easily get tripped up.  Given half the top-10 lost last week, Wisconsin is very aware that the same thing could happen this week.

Vanderbilt (3-1) at Auburn (3-2) - 12:30 PM

You’ve heard about Kentucky.  You’ve heard about South Carolina.  But did you know Vanderbilt was 3-1 as well?  If Vanderbilt could pull off the win, they would nearly complete the complete a shift which is turning the SEC inside-out.

Iowa (2-3) at Penn State (3-2) - 3:30 PM

Both of these teams are 0-2 in conference play and desperately need a win to have any sort of shot.  A loss here all but eliminates either of these teams from the conference race.

Oklahoma (4-1) vs. Texas (4-1) - 3:30 PM

Many people expected these teams to be 5-0 coming into today.  Oklahoma because they had been destroying everyone they had played and Texas because, well, they’re Texas, despite never looking all that good.  Both got upset last week so this is a rebound game both teams need.  Oh, and did I mention that the winner gets leg-up in the Big 12 South title race?

Georgia (4-1) at Tennessee (2-2) - 3:30 PM

With Florida losing to Auburn last week, it resets the SEC title race as all six SEC East teams have one conference loss.  That means the winner of this game is suddenly back into contention to win the SEC East title.  However, this game may be more important to the Volunteers who want to try avoid falling to 2-3 and looking like the may have their 2nd losing season in 3 years.

Virginia Tech (4-1) at Clemson (4-1) - 6:00 PM

This is a huge intra-divisional match-up in the ACC as both teams try to stay in their respective division’s races.  A loss by Clemson would put them 2 games behind Boston College - a margin not easily made up.  Things aren’t as bad for the Hokies, who would only be given their first conference loss if they lose, but they still don’t want to have to play catchup with Virginia and Miami.

Oklahoma State (3-2) at Texas A&M (4-1) - 7:30 PM

Along with the other Texas/Oklahoma game, this is a game which has major implications for the Big 12 South race as these two teams are the last two teams still undefeated in the conference.  Just like the Texas/Oklahoma game, the winner of this game will have a leg up in the Big 12 South race.

Ohio State (5-0) at Purdue (5-0) - 8:00 PM

This wasn’t a game many people were expecting to be so big, but it is as the winner, in conjunction with the Wisconsin/Illinois game, will be only one of three Big Ten teams still undefeated in the conference.  Just like Wisconsin, Ohio State is well aware of the troubles that Top-1o teams have been happy, and Purdue would be more than happy to join the upset club.

Notre Dame (0-5) at UCLA (4-1) - 8:00 PM

OK, this isn’t a game to watch as much as I want to see how low Notre Dame can actually go.  If they lose, they go to 0-6 with two Top 10 teams coming up.  Basically, if Notre Dame wants any chance to go bowling, they must, must, must, must win this game.  Otherwise, they are almost certainly staring at an 0-8 record when the Midshipmen come to town hoping to snap their 43-game losing streak.  Oh, and a loss would match Notre Dame’s longest losing streak at 8 games.

Cincinnati (5-0) at Rutgers (3-1) - 8:00 PM

Rutgers tries to avoid losing 3 in a row while Cincinnati will try to show themselves to be a bona fide  Big East contender.  Oh, and they’ll become bowl eligible with a win.

Florida (4-1) at LSU (5-0) -  8:28 PM

Probably the biggest game in the SEC today, Florida avoids getting 2 conferences losses and being put in serious jeopardy of not being able to win the Eastern Division while LSU tries flexing their brand new AP #1 ranking out.  An LSU loss would also suddenly put the SEC West back into play.

Nebraska (4-1) at Missouri (4-0) - 9:15 PM

Like the Kansas/KSU game, this game is an important match-up in the Big 12 North race as both teams have no conference losses yet.  Missouri has not won a division title since the Big 12 was formed, and win over Nebraska would put them in a position to have an opportunity to do so.

Here are today’s games to watch:

Penn State (3-1) at Illinois (3-1) - 12:00 PM

Believe it or not, Illinois is 3-1, and is a very close game with Missouri from being 4-0.  Illinois is quickly showing themselves to be a team that cannot be taken lightly.  Meanwhile, Penn State is coming off a disappointing loss to Michigan.  I’ll be interested to see how this game turns out.  How good is Illinois?

Notre Dame (0-4) at Purdue (4-0) - 12:00 PM

Can Notre Dame get a win? This week is another tough week as they travel to Purdue.  Looking at Notre Dame’s remaining schedule, this is a must-win game.  If Notre Dame cannot pull the upset against Purdue, they’re looking at being 0-8 going into the Navy game.

Mississippi State (3-1) at South Carolina (3-1) - 12:30 PM

Yes, Mississippi State is 3-1, with wins over Tulane, Auburn, and Gardner-Webb.  Ok, those are really impressive wins, except for maybe Auburn and this will be Mississippi state’s first true test of the season (they were merely sacrificial lambs against LSU).  South Carolina is looking to rebound from their loss against LSU.

Syracuse (1-3) at Miami-OH (1-3) - 3:00 PM

After their stunning upset at Louisville last week, can Syracuse rebound, or will they fall right back into the hole they were in after their first three games.  Meanwhile, Miami needs to get out of a 3-game losing streak themselves.

Michigan State (4-0) at Wisconsin (4-0) - 3:30 PM

This game as Big Ten title implications.  Wisconsin just survived Iowa last week, and now face an even better looking Michigan State team.  Meanwhile, Michigan State will face their first real test of the season.  The winner of this game definitely has a leg-up on fighting for the Big Ten title.

Maryland (2-2) at Rutgers (3-0) - 3:30 PM

After West Virginia’s loss last night and Louisville’s lost last week, Rutgers is the Big East’s last hope of getting a team into the BCS Championship Game. However, they’re facing what can be a very tricky Maryland team this week.  Maryland has yet to win a good game yet this year, however, by they fared better than expected against West Virginia, and were beating up Wake Forest before they blew that game.  Rutgers should win, but they can’t overlook Maryland.

Kansas State (2-1) at Texas (4-0) - 3:30 PM

Kansas State is thisclose from being 3-0, but haven’t really beaten anyone impressive, though they have won impressively.  Texas, on the other hand, has looked very vulnerable all season, though they have kept winning.  Texas just escaped in both of their games against Arkansas State and Central Florida.  TCU was a possible early-season upset for Texas, but they pulled that game out.  Has Texas finally found their grove?  If note, Kansas State is definitely a worth enough of an opponent to leave Austin with a win.

Clemson (4-0) at Georgia Tech (2-2) - 3:30 PM

Georgia Tech has had two tough losses in a row while Clemson comes in trying to keep up with Boston College in the ACC Atlantic division race.  I still think Georgia Tech is a team one can’t take lightly, so Clemson has to watch out.

California (4-0) at Oregon (4-0) - 3:30 PM

This is probably the game of the week, and appears to be the only game between ranked opponents this week.  This is a huge game in the Pac 10, as the winner gets a leg up on 2nd place in the conference, a BCS bid, and a chance to upset USC for the conference title.

Southern Cal (3-0) at Washington (2-2) - 8:00 PM

Washington started the season with two good looking wins, then suddenly lost two in a row.  Will Washington rebound?  This may be a tricky game for USC and a possible upset if Washington can get their game back together.

Auburn (2-2) at Florida (4-0) - 8:00 PM

Auburn is in desperate win of turning their season around.  They pulled the upset against Florida last season, though Auburn was a much better team last season.  Florida should win, but this is still an upset watch.