Code Orange

About the only things we know at this point are that Ohio State will play in the BCS title and Hawaii will be in the Sugar Bowl. Past that, it’s about anyone’s guess.

This is how I think things will break down: despite the calls by TV people to jump LSU up from 7th to 2nd in the BCS (which would mean jumping both the teams who lost today, but also Georgia and 1-loss Kansas, who didn’t play, as well as Virginia Tech who won the ACC Championship game), I think Georgia will slip into the #2 slot in the BCS title game.

I think there is just too much of a hill to climb for LSU, and especially since they didn’t look all that great against Tennessee, I don’t see why pollsters would intentionally move them higher than normal in order to influence the BCS. If they did that for anyone, I would think they could do it for Oklahoma, who just beat a good Missouri team for the 2nd time this season. In any case, I think it will be Ohio State vs. Georgia, though even if it is LSU, I don’t think it will affect the BCS Bowl matchups much at all.

Assuming this, this is where teams would go based on conference championship tie-ins:

Rose: Southern Cal vs. BCS
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. BCS
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. BCS
Sugar: LSU vs. BCS

*West Virginia has no automatic bowl tie-in

Kansas should almost certainly either be #3 in the BCS, or #4 with a BCS champion in the #3 slot. That will give Kansas an automatic berth into the BCS. Hawaii winning in conjuction with Boston College and Tennessee losing should guarantee them a spot in the top 12 and in a BCS Bowl.

After that, the remaining at-large spot can be filled by any team with 9 wins and in the top 14. My best guess is that the teams to choose from will be the following:

Arizona State, Illinois, and probably Clemson.

*Missouri and Florida are ineligible due to the 2-team per conference limit

Now, the selection process will go as thus:

Since the Rose Bowl will lose their Big 10 representative to the BCS title game, and that team will be the #1 team in the nation, the Rose Bowl will get the first pick. There was been speculation that the Rose Bowl will pick Georgia if LSU goes to the title game. Since I think Georgia will be in the title game, that scenario would go out of play, but lets say LSU is chosen instead, there are two reasons why I don’t think the Rose will pick Georgia:

1) Illinios should be eligible for the BCS, and given that the Rose Bowl gets irked whenever they can’t get their Pac 10/Big 10 matchup, I don’t see why they would pass on the opportunity to have it, and

2) This is a rather complex sounding rule so hang with me: If two bowls lose the teams with automatic conference tie-ins, which would be the case for the Rose and Sugar Bowls if the BCS title is Ohio State vs. LSU - then the first bowl can choose any team out of the at-large pool (and the at-large pool only - no other automatic tie-in teams) EXCEPT a team from the same conference as the other team in the title game without that Bowl with that conference tie-in’s permission. That means that if the Rose Bowl wanted Georgia for some reason, they would have to get the Sugar Bowl’s permission to release Georgia. I see absolutely no reason for the Sugar Bowl to do this.

So, I’m saying that regardless of how things shake out in the BCS title, the Rose Bowl will pick Illinois to face USC.

If LSU plays in the title game, the Sugar Bowl picks 2nd, and they’ll pick Georgia. If it’s Georgia in the title game, then the Orange Bowl picks 2nd, and most people seem to think that they’ll pick West Virginia to face Virginia Tech.

The next pick goes to the Fiesta Bowl. They’ll have a choice between Kansas and Hawaii - two teams who get automatic berths into the BCS. Most people believe that they’ll chose Kansas, because it creates an interesting intra-Big 12 game and they don’t want Hawaii.

The final pick would then go to the Sugar Bowl, who would be left with Hawaii.

That means here is how I project the BCS Bowls:

BCS Championship: Ohio State vs. Georgia
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. Southern California
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: Hawaii vs. LSU
Orange Bowl: West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech

If Hawaii for some reason doesn’t make the top 12 of the BCS, the Fiesta Bowl could go with Arizona State. If they stick with Kansas, the Sugar could go with Arizona State or possibly Clemson if they’re in the top 14.

Update 3:17 AM

Hawaii wins 35-28 and almost certainly earns a bid to the Sugar Bowl.

Update 3:08 AM

Aloha New Orleans? Hawaii takes a 35-28 lead on Washington with 44 seconds to go.

Update 2:49 AM

Reports of Hawaii’s death have been greatly exaggerated. They just tied Washington at 28 with 8:05 to go in the game.

Update 12:53 AM

It doesn’t look like the BCS is going to have to worry about where to put Hawaii. Washington will take care of the problem for them. The Huskies lead the Warriors 21-7 in the middle of the 2nd quarter.

Update 11:45 PM

Oklahoma wins the Big 12 Championship over #1 Missouri 38-17.

Update 11:38 PM

Oklahoma just put a cherry on top of the cake, going up 38-17 after kicking a field goal with only 3:42 to go.

Update 11:17 PM

Just do it. Seriously. Put Hawaii in the title game. If you can’t decide on which 2-loss team should play Ohio State, then either put Kansas, who is the only other 1-loss team, or stick in Hawaii, the only remaining undefeated team. Will anyone dare rank Hawaii #1 tomorrow if they win tonight?

Update 11:15 PM

Barring an amazing comeback by the Tigers, Oklahoma is going to cap the third top-two-double of the season as they go up on Missouri 35-17.

Update 11:10 PM

If you can believe it, before this weekend, the last time the #1 and #2 teams lost on the same day (and presumably the same weekend) was back on September 21, 1996. If the Oklahoma score holds up, #1 and #2 will have lost on the same day twice this season, and on the same weekend 3 times this season. The only good thing about the BCS title game is that both the #1 and #2 teams can’t lose - unless they aren’t actually playing (can anyone say LSU/USC?).

Update 11:01 PM

Missouri has to kick yet another field goal and it’s 28-17 Oklahoma with 14:51 to go.

Update 10:58 PM

Ohio State is going to the national title game. Pittsburgh defeats West Virginia 13-9. This is #13. The 13th top-5 teams who has lost to an unranked opponent this year.

Update 10:50 PM

West Virginia is able to get down to the Pitt 21, but is forced into a 4th and 17 and cannot convert. Pitt takes over with under two minutes to go.

Update 10:47 PM

Missouri is in deep trouble now as Oklahoma takes a two touchdown lead on them 28-14.

Update 10:40 PM

Oklahoma retakes the lead in the Big 12 Championship over Missouri 21-14.

Update 10:34 PM

Stanford defeats California 20-13.

Update 10:31 PM

Pittsburgh adds a field goal to take a 13-7 lead on West Virginia with only 6:17 to go.

Finals:

Florida International 38, North Texas 19

Update 10:11 PM

Richmond defeats Wofford 21-10 and they’ll play at Appalachian State in the I-AA semifinals next week.

Also, Brigham Young defeats San Diego State 48-27.

Update 9:51 PM

Missouri finally gets into the endzone with 14 seconds to go in the 1st half. It’s now 14-14 after Missouri converts a 2-point conversion..

Update 9:47 PM

Richmond is now up on Wofford 21-10 with 8:40 to go.

Update 9:43 PM

We may definitely be heading towards and Ohio State vs. Georgia championship game. Pittsburgh takes a 10-7 lead on West Virginia.

Update 9:37 PM

Oklahoma scores another touchdown as they go up on #1 Missouri 14-6.

Meanwhile, Richmond retakes the lead on Wofford 14-10 with 11:55 to go.

Update 9:17 PM

Wofford goes up on Richmond 10-7 in the 3rd quarter.

Update 9:15 PM

Pittsburgh gets on the board, and is now down West Virginia 7-3. Missouri is forced to kick a 2nd field goal, but it’s still 7-6 Oklahoma.

Update 9:02 PM

West Virginia finally gets on the board to go ahead of Pittsburgh 7-0 late in the 1st half.

Update 9:01 PM

Oklahoma goes ahead of Missouri with a touchdown. They’re now up 7-3 in the Big 12 Championship game.

Update 8:51 PM

Missouri strikes first as they kick a field goal to go up 3-0 on Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Arizona is up on Arizona State 7-0.

Update 8:31 PM

I’m sure this isn’t how West Vision envisioned their last game of the season - after the 1st quarter they’re scoreless with Pittsburgh.

Update 8:28 PM

Oregon State finishes off Oregon 38-31 in overtime.

Update 8:24 PM

Oregon/Oregon State doesn’t want to end. They went into overtime tied at 28. They now head into double-overtime tied at 31.

Update 8:11 PM

Southern California defeats UCLA 24-7, and wins the Pac 10. USC is going to the Rose Bowl against Ohio State or Illinios.

Meanwhile, Richmond goes ahead of Wofford 7-3.

Update 8:01 PM

Wofford goes up on Richmond 3-0 in the 2nd quarter.

Update 7:43 PM

Tennessee (specifically Ainge) made too many mistakes down the stretch as LSU wins the SEC Championship 21-14.

Update 7:37 PM

Tennessee tries to come back and gets down to the LSU 15, but Ainge throws an interceptions with only 2:42 to go.

7:19 PM

Tennessee turns the ball over for the first time in the game, and it’s a costly one as LSU returns it for a touchdown to take a 21-14 lead on the Volunteers with 9:54 to go in the SEC Championship Game.

Also, Nevada defeats Louisiana Tech 49-10.

Update 6:44 PM

Southern Illinois defeats Massachusetts 34-27 and will get Delaware at home next week in the I-AA semifinals.

Update 6:39 PM

Tennessee recovers only the 3rd lost fumble all year by LSU and then drives down the field to score a touchdown and retakes the lead 14-13 nearing the end of the 3rd quarter.

Update 6:35 PM

UMass is trying to come back, cutting Southern Illinois’ lead to 34-27, but there’s only 2:20 to go in that game. The winner will play Delaware in the semifinals.

Update 6:22 PM

Tennessee is able to finally put a drive together, but misses the field goal, so it’s still 13-7 LSU in the SEC Championship.

Update 6:11 PM

Tennessee leaves their defense in the locker room during halftime apparently as LSU flies down the field to score a touchdown and goes up 13-7.

Update 6:02 PM

Also, Florida Atlantic defeats Troy 38-32 as the owls pull off the upset to win the Sun Belt conference and earns a bid to the New Orleans Bowl.

Update 5:51 PM

We have our final Division II and III finals today:

In the Division II quarterfinals, Northwest Missouri State defeats Chadron State 26-13, while in the Division III quarterfinals, Bethel (MN) defeats Central College 27-13.

The Division II semifinals are now set as two-time defending champion Grand Valley State vs. Northwest Missouri State, whom GVSU has defeated in each of the last two national championship games, and Valdosta State vs. California (PA)

The Division III semifinals are set as Mt. Union vs. Bethel (MN) and Mary Hardin-Baylor vs. Wisconsin-Whitewater.

Update 5:43 PM

Delaware defeats Northern Iowa 39-27.

Update 5:38 PM

LSU ends a rather sloppily played half offensively for both teams so far by missing a field goal, and Tennessee goes into halftime ahead 7-6.

Meanwhile, Delaware probably just put away Northern Iowa, scoring another touchdown and going up 39-27 with just 41 seconds to go.

Update 5:27 PM

Northern Iowa says not so fast. They cut their lead against Delaware to 32-27 with 4:30 to go.

Update 5:24 PM

We had 3 undefeated I-AA teams going into the playoffs. It looks like none of them will make the semifinals as Delaware is now up on Northern Iowa 32-20 with only 5:40 to go.

Update 5:17 PM

Tennessee finally forces LSU to punt.

Update 5:09 PM

Tennessee once again has to punt. Their 3rd punt of the game. LSU has not punted yet. Yet Tennessee still leads 7-6.

Update 5:03 PM

LSU drives down the field again, but this time they go for it on 4th down and fail to pick it up for only the 3rd time this year.

Update 5:02 PM

Delaware is now up on Northern Iowa 29-20 heading into the 4th quarter. Meanwhile, Southern Illinois extends their lead on Massachusetts 27- 13

Update 5:01 PM

Southern Cal strikes first and they lead UCLA 7-0.

Update 4:46 PM

Valdosta State defeats North Alabama in the Division II quarterfinals 37-23.

Update 4:44 PM

Tennessee gets stop and has to punt. LSU once again drives down the field, but like in their game against Arkansas, fail to get it into the end zone. They stick another field goal on the board and it’s 7-6 Tennessee.

Update 4:40 PM

Delaware retakes the lead on Northern Iowa with a field goal, going up 22-20. Meanwhile, Massachusetts is trying to crawl back in their game, now only down to Southern Illinois 20-13.

Update 4:38 PM

Virginia Tech is ACC Champions, defeating Boston College 30-16. Meanwhile, Hawaii celebrates as BC should fall below them, assuming Hawaii wins tonight.

Update 4:35 PM

Virginia Tech takes care of business this time, picking off Matt Ryan, and taking it to the endzone to take a 30-16 lead.

Update 4:31 PM

Boston College holds Virginia Tech to a 3-and-out, so they get the ball back on the Boston College 35 yard line with only 34 seconds to go, and no time outs. Will we see another BC comeback?

Meanwhile, Northern Iowa retakes the lead on Delaware 20-19 in the 3rd quarter.

Update 4:28 PM

LSU marches down the field, but then Tennessee’s defense stiffens and holds LSU to only a field goal. It’s 7-3 Tennessee in the SEC Championship game.

Update 4:25 PM

Boston College tries another comeback against Virginia Tech, but this time appears to come back short, failing on a 4th down play inside the Tech 15. Virginia Tech takes over with only 2:25 to go.

Update 4:16 PM

Another Division II final: Grand Valley State defeats Central Washington 41-21.

Also another Division III final: Wisconsin-Whitewater defeats Wabash College 47-7.

Update 4:14 PM

The 500 fans in Jacksonville goes wild as someone finally scores again in the ACC Championship as Virginia Tech goes up on Boston College 23-16 with 7:20 to go in the game.

Meanwhile in the SEC Championship Game, Tennessee strikes first, going up on LSU 7-0.

Update 3:48 PM

The ACC Championship game heads towards the 4th quarter with neither team really able to get anything going in the 3rd quarter. Virginia Tech and Boston College are still tied at 16.

Update 3:44 PM

Southern Illinois also leads Massachusetts 13-0.

Update 3:41 PM

Delaware is now up on Northern Iowa 19-10 nearing halftime.

Update 3:41 PM

Appalachian State recovers the onsides kick and advances to the I-AA semifinals to play either Wofford or Richmond.

In a Division II final, California (PA) defeats Shepherd 58-38.

Update 3:37 PM

Central Florida wins the Conference USA Championship game over Tulsa 44-25.

Update 3:35 PM

Appalachian State recovers the onsides kick and goes 3-and-out, but they force Eastern Washington to use all of their timeouts. Eastern Washington once again drives down the field to put another touchdown on the board, making it 38-35. They now need the onsides kick as there is only 28 seconds to go and they have no timeouts.

Also, suddenly Delaware is up on Northern Iowa 12-10.

Update 3:20 PM

Eastern Washington is able to drive down the field to close the gap against Appalachian State to 38-28, but they took a long time with there only being 3:11 left in the game.

Update 3:18 PM

Navy routes Army 38-3.

Update 3:07 PM

Appalachian State recovers an Eastern Washington fumble and probably puts the final nail in the coffin by scoring another touchdown, going up 38-21 with only 6:07 to go.

Update 3:06 PM

A couple of Division III finals:

Mt. Union 52, St. John Fisher 10
Mary-Hardin Baylor 27, Wesley College 10

Update 2:52 PM

Appalachian State is able to get into Eastern Washington’s territory but the drive stalls and EWU stops ASU for the 2nd straight drive. However, they’re still down 31-21.

Also, it’s now 10-o Northern Iowa over Delaware.

Update 2:39 PM

Virginia Tech responds to Boston College, driving down the field and tying the game at 16-16.

Update 2:38 PM

Appalachian State intercepts an Eastern Washington pass, but EWU is able to hold ASU to stay in the game and gets the ball back on a punt.

Update 2:30 PM

The last remaining undefeated team in I-AA Northern Iowa takes a 7-0 lead on Delaware in the 1st quarter.

Update 2:29 PM

Appalachian State once again answers Eastern Washington, putting another touchdown on the board and going up 31-21.

Eastern Washington is going to have to get their offense going. Their three touchdowns have been on a kickoff return for a touchdown, a fake punt, and a 14 yard drive after another long kickoff return. Eastern Washington hasn’t had a single long drive for a touchdown today. Meanwhile, Eastern Washington’s defense hasn’t been able to stop Appalachian State’s offense all day. They’ll need to do that if they want to win this game.

Update 2:20 PM

Boston College responds to Virginia Tech’s touchdown with one of their own. However, Virginia Tech blocks the extra point and returns it for 2 points and Boston College is only able to extend their lead to 16-9.

Update 2:18 PM

Eastern Washington gets their second huge kickoff return, this time for a touchdown, and suddenly it’s 24-21 Appalachian State.

Update 2:15 PM

Central Michigan wins the MAC, defeating Miami (OH) 35-10

Update 2:14 PM

Appalachian State drives down the field on their first drive of the 2nd half and puts up a field goal to expand their lead to 24-14.

Update 2:11 PM

Virginia Tech finally is able to get a drive together and sticks it into an endzone to make it 10-7 Boston College.

Update 1:59 PM

Eastern Washington scores a touchdown on a fake punt on their opening drive of the 2nd half to reduce Appalachian State’s lead to 21-14.

Meanwhile, Boston College works their way down the field and adds a field goal to make it a 10-0 lead over Virginia Tech.

Update 1:38 PM

Virginia Tech fumbles and Boston College recovers and runs it back for a touchdown to take a 7-0 lead.

Update 1:31 PM

In the Division II quarterfinals, California (PA) leads Shepherd 27-17 at halftime, Grand Valley State leads Central Washington 6-0 in the 1st quarter, while North Alabama and Valdosta State are tied at 6 in the 1st quarter. I can’t seem to find a score for the Chadron State vs. NW Missouri State game.

In the Division III quarterfinals, Mt. Union leads St. John Fisher 21-0 at halftime, Mary-Hardin Baylor leads Wesley College 10-3 at halftime, Wisconsin-Whitewater leads Wabash 7-0 in the 1st quarter, while the Bethel vs. Central College game is reported as being delayed.

Update 1:25 PM

Despite 3 holding calls on their drive, including one calling back a touchdown, Appalachian State is still able to stick it into the endzone, and now it’s 21-7 ASU over Eastern Washington near halftime.

Also, Tulsa strikes back and it’s now 24-20 Central Florida over the Golden Hurricanes. Also, Navy is now up on Army 21-3.

Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is held to a 3-and-out.

Update 1:18 PM

Virginia Tech is back to their usual business in the ACC Championship Game as they block a Boston College field goal.

Update 1:17 PM

Central Michigan now goes up on Miami (OH) 14-3.

Update 1:15 PM

By the way, the Conference USA title game is also going on today. Currently Central Florida leads Tulsa 24-13.

Update 1:13 PM

Eastern Washington gets the ball inside the ASU 5 yard line but fumbles the ball away and is recovered by Appalachian State.

Meanwhile, Miami (OH) gets on the board, but is still down to Central Michigan 7-3. It’s also 7-3 Navy over Army.

Update 1:00 PM

Appalachian State is able to work their way into Eastern Washington territory, but then is stopped and is forced to put it away.

Update 12:52 PM

Eastern Washington returns the kickoff down to the ASU 14 yard line. They quickly put it into the endzone and makes it 14-7 Appalachian State.

Update 12:47 PM

Navy goes up 7-0 on Army. Meanwhile, Appalachian State appears to be having an easier time this week than last week as they go up on Eastern Washington 14-0.

Update 12:39 PM

Eastern Washington gets deep into Appalachian State territory, but a big sack sets EWU back and ASU blocks the field goal.

Update 12:27 PM

Appalachian State strikes first and goes up on Eastern Washington 7-0.

In the MAC Championship, it’s 7-0 Central Michigan over Miami at halftime (the game started at 11am).

Original Post

We start off the day with the MAC Championship game between Miami (OH) and Central Michigan and our first I-AA quarterfinal between Eastern Washington and Appalachian State.

It’s the final week of the regular season and this is where everything will be decided.

Let’s start off with the BCS National Championship.  For once, who goes will be easy:

If Missouri defeats Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship game, they’re in the title game.  If West Virginia defeats Pittsburgh, they’re in the title game.  If either lose, Ohio State will get in.  If both lose, it will likely be Ohio State vs. Georgia.  Yes, Georgia.

As for getting into the BCS, West Virginia and Ohio State have already gained automatic bids by winning their conferences.  The winner of the Big 12 Championship will get an automatic bid, the winner of the ACC Championship game between Virginia Tech and Boston College will get an automatic bid, and the winner of the SEC Championship game will get an automatic bid.

The Pac 10 gets messy again.  Currently Southern Cal leads the Pac 10.  If they defeat UCLA today, they get into the BCS.  However, if Southern Cal loses, then the BCS bid falls to Arizona State - assuming they defeat Arizona tonight.  If both USC and Arizona State both lose, then it falls to Oregon - assuming they can defeat Oregon State.  If all 3 teams lose, then we’ll have a 4-way tie for the Pac 10 title between Arizona State, USC, Oregon State, and UCLA.  In the first round of head-to-head matchups, Arizona State is 2-1, USC would be 2-1, UCLA would be 2-1, and Oregon State would be 0-3.  That doesn’t really help us as now in this three-way tie-breaker, everyone is 1-1.

The next tie-breaker is to see how teams did against the next highest placing team in the conference down until we can break the tie.  Under this scenario it would be Arizona, as Arizona and Oregon would have 4 conference losses, and Arizona defeated Oregon.  Here, Arizona State would have lost, USC lost, and UCLA won.  That means, in the case of a 4-way tie, UCLA would win the Pac 10 (assuming I’m doing all of this correctly).

That takes care of our conference champions.  Georgia will get an automatic bid, either by being in the title game or due to the “Kansas State rule.” being an at-large placed at 3rd, or at 4th if the 3rd place team is a conference champion.

Hawaii is currently in 12th, which would give them an automatic bid into the BCS as well.  They don’t play until 11:30, so we won’t know until late to see if they still have a chance.  Looking at the BCS standings, they’ll want both Boston College and Oklahoma to lose, so that they’ll drop below Hawaii in the BCS.  They would also probably prefer an Arizona upset of Arizona State and for Tennessee to lose the SEC title to prevent the Sun Devils and Volunteers from hopping over them.

However, there is still one more way Hawaii could get in, and the Pac 10 could help.  The well known rule is that a non-BCS team must place in the top 12 of the BCS to get an automatic bid.  However, they can also place in the top 16 and finish above one of the BCS conference champions.  If Oregon or UCLA win the Pac 10 today, Hawaii would likely finish higher than them in the BCS (in fact, it would pretty much be certain in UCLA’s case) and, providing Hawaii wins, they should get in, even if they drop from 12th and stay above 16th.

As for the other 2 at-large teams, if it’s Missouri vs. West Virginia in the title, I don’t see how Kansas doesn’t fall into the Fiesta Bowl.  If Ohio State gets in, expect the Rose Bowl to pick up Illinois.  How about the last team.  That becomes interesting because the BCS field gets very thin after that.  If Missouri loses, they’re probably going to get the last at-large, but let’s assume a Missouri/West Virginia title game.  After going through the top 12, we’re likely still going to have a Fiesta Bowl spot to fill.  From what I can tell, possible teams going into that spot include Arizona State, Illinois, the loser of the ACC title game, USC if they lose to UCLA, Clemson, Oregon, and if they get high enough in the standings, Brigham Young.

You’d have to believe that this spot is most likely going to the Pac 10 unless the conference just melts down today.  If both Arizona State and USC win, expect this to go to Arizona State.   If USC loses, expect this spot to go to USC.  If they both lose, then it starts getting weird.  Perhaps a team like Illinois could sneak in.