Code Orange

About the only things we know at this point are that Ohio State will play in the BCS title and Hawaii will be in the Sugar Bowl. Past that, it’s about anyone’s guess.

This is how I think things will break down: despite the calls by TV people to jump LSU up from 7th to 2nd in the BCS (which would mean jumping both the teams who lost today, but also Georgia and 1-loss Kansas, who didn’t play, as well as Virginia Tech who won the ACC Championship game), I think Georgia will slip into the #2 slot in the BCS title game.

I think there is just too much of a hill to climb for LSU, and especially since they didn’t look all that great against Tennessee, I don’t see why pollsters would intentionally move them higher than normal in order to influence the BCS. If they did that for anyone, I would think they could do it for Oklahoma, who just beat a good Missouri team for the 2nd time this season. In any case, I think it will be Ohio State vs. Georgia, though even if it is LSU, I don’t think it will affect the BCS Bowl matchups much at all.

Assuming this, this is where teams would go based on conference championship tie-ins:

Rose: Southern Cal vs. BCS
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. BCS
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. BCS
Sugar: LSU vs. BCS

*West Virginia has no automatic bowl tie-in

Kansas should almost certainly either be #3 in the BCS, or #4 with a BCS champion in the #3 slot. That will give Kansas an automatic berth into the BCS. Hawaii winning in conjuction with Boston College and Tennessee losing should guarantee them a spot in the top 12 and in a BCS Bowl.

After that, the remaining at-large spot can be filled by any team with 9 wins and in the top 14. My best guess is that the teams to choose from will be the following:

Arizona State, Illinois, and probably Clemson.

*Missouri and Florida are ineligible due to the 2-team per conference limit

Now, the selection process will go as thus:

Since the Rose Bowl will lose their Big 10 representative to the BCS title game, and that team will be the #1 team in the nation, the Rose Bowl will get the first pick. There was been speculation that the Rose Bowl will pick Georgia if LSU goes to the title game. Since I think Georgia will be in the title game, that scenario would go out of play, but lets say LSU is chosen instead, there are two reasons why I don’t think the Rose will pick Georgia:

1) Illinios should be eligible for the BCS, and given that the Rose Bowl gets irked whenever they can’t get their Pac 10/Big 10 matchup, I don’t see why they would pass on the opportunity to have it, and

2) This is a rather complex sounding rule so hang with me: If two bowls lose the teams with automatic conference tie-ins, which would be the case for the Rose and Sugar Bowls if the BCS title is Ohio State vs. LSU - then the first bowl can choose any team out of the at-large pool (and the at-large pool only - no other automatic tie-in teams) EXCEPT a team from the same conference as the other team in the title game without that Bowl with that conference tie-in’s permission. That means that if the Rose Bowl wanted Georgia for some reason, they would have to get the Sugar Bowl’s permission to release Georgia. I see absolutely no reason for the Sugar Bowl to do this.

So, I’m saying that regardless of how things shake out in the BCS title, the Rose Bowl will pick Illinois to face USC.

If LSU plays in the title game, the Sugar Bowl picks 2nd, and they’ll pick Georgia. If it’s Georgia in the title game, then the Orange Bowl picks 2nd, and most people seem to think that they’ll pick West Virginia to face Virginia Tech.

The next pick goes to the Fiesta Bowl. They’ll have a choice between Kansas and Hawaii - two teams who get automatic berths into the BCS. Most people believe that they’ll chose Kansas, because it creates an interesting intra-Big 12 game and they don’t want Hawaii.

The final pick would then go to the Sugar Bowl, who would be left with Hawaii.

That means here is how I project the BCS Bowls:

BCS Championship: Ohio State vs. Georgia
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. Southern California
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: Hawaii vs. LSU
Orange Bowl: West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech

If Hawaii for some reason doesn’t make the top 12 of the BCS, the Fiesta Bowl could go with Arizona State. If they stick with Kansas, the Sugar could go with Arizona State or possibly Clemson if they’re in the top 14.