Code Orange

It’s the first actual BCS Human poll, and it’s looking good for LSU.  Here is the Coaches poll top 10:

1. Ohio State (46) 1,469
2. LSU (11) 1,418
3. Oklahoma (2) 1,331
4. Georgia 1,277
5. Virginia Tech 1,242
6. Southern California 1,227
7. Missouri 1,104
8. Kansas 1,099
9. West Virginia 1,010
10. Hawaii (1) 994

Once again, it’s the points that matter, not the rank, so here are the scores that will go into the BCS:

LSU:  0.945
Oklahoma: 0.887
Georgia: 0.851
Virginia Tech: 0.828
Southern Cal: 0.818

Given Oklahoma’s computer disadvantage, this will put LSU in the title game. Unless the Harris poll rebels against what the AP and Coaches poll is doing - and I doubt they will - I see no way for Georgia to make up this distance in the computer rankings.  LSU will play Ohio State for the national title.

As a result, I predict the BCS as thus:

1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Georgia
4. Virginia Tech
5. Oklahoma
If you’re curios, here are the changes from last week:

LSU: +5 ranks, +284 points (average +4.7 spots per ballot)
Oklahoma: +5 ranks, +205 points (average +3.4 spots per ballot)
Georgia: No rank change, +45 points, (average +0.8 spots per ballot)
Virginia Tech: No rank change, +81 points, (average +1.4 spots per ballot)
Southern Cal: +4 ranks, +154 points (average +2.6 spots per ballot)

This clearly shows a concerted effort to put Oklahoma and especially LSU into the title game. It’s interesting that LSU got a bigger per-ballot increase (4.7 spots) for defeating a 4-loss now-18th ranked Tennessee than Oklahoma got (3.4 spots) for defeating the then-#1, now-#7 ranked team Missouri.

I also think there are four damning portions to this poll:

1) Clearly there was an effort to make LSU the #2 team.  This can be seen from the fact that LSU is actually closer to #1 Ohio State than they are #3 Oklahoma.  People intentionaly put as much distance between LSU and Georgia to make computers a non-factor (knowing that Oklahoma would need to be a very strong #2 to get in despite their computer rankings)

2) Virginia Tech defeated Boston College, yet got leapfrogged by both LSU and Oklahoma, who both rose 5 spots.  Virginia Tech defeated a better team than Tennessee (and by a larger margin), yet hardly moved at all.  They only gained 1.4 spots per ballot even though 2 teams ahead of them lost.  It’s clear that, for the first and only time this year, people were voting based on who they wanted in the title game rather than how they usually vote.

If people think that polls should always show show they think should be in the title game - then they should vote that way.  LSU would have been in the top 2 all year, despite losing twice then.  If they think you should punish people for losing, and rewarding people for winning - and being consistent in those punishments and rewards - then do it every week, not just all the weeks except the final week.

3) To ensure Kansas couldn’t make it (and possibly screwing the Jayhawks out of a BCS bid), they were dropped 3 spots despite 2 teams ahead of them losing.  USC, Oklahoma, and LSU all jumpted ahead, and Virginia Tech, whom Kansas was tied with before, moved ahead, while Missouri remained ahead of Kansas despite losing.

This also goes towards the “vote the same way every week in the poll” point above.

4) There might also be an effort to squeeze Hawaii out of the BCS.  Hawaii was 12th last week in the BCS - right on the minimum rank in the BCS to get an auto-bid.  Arizona State, the 13th ranked team, actually jumped Florida in the Coaches poll to gain a position and 144 points.  Hawaii, meanwhile, only gained 38 points.

Boston College, the only team directly above Hawaii to lose, only dropped two positions and lost 244 points.  That should drop Boston College under Hawaii, leaving them 12th even if Arizona jumps over them, but it will be close.  Illinois, another team under Hawaii, also jumped up a rank and gained 100 points in the polls - though that was mostly at BC’s expense.