Code Orange

We once again enter the twilight zone where games featuring South Florida are bigger than Miami vs. Florida State, and Kentucky get to be in a game bigger than Tennessee vs. Alabama.  In any case, here are the games to watch in week 8:

South Florida (6-0) at Rutgers (4-2) - Thursday, 7:30 PM

I don’t know that this game is bigger than the West Virginia game earlier in the year for South Florida, but it certainly is one of the big 4 games South Florida must get by this season (along with Cincinnati on November 3rd, and Louisville on November 17th).  Meanwhile, Rutgers needs this win, or else they may have to start worrying about bowl eligibility.

Louisville (4-3) at Connecticut (5-1) - Friday, 8:00 PM

Louisville has had a bad habit of not winning games they were supposed to win this year, while Connecticut fared better than people expected against Virginia.  Connecticut can show that they are indeed a team to be dealt with in the Big East while Louisville, with West Virginia, South Florida, and Rutgers still to play, desperately needs this win to get closer to bowl eligibility.

Penn State (5-2) at Indiana (5-2) - 12:00 PM

Indiana can finally get bowl eligible with a win over the Nittany Lions.  Meanwhile, the winner of this game stays at least maintains radar contact with the Big Ten championship, while the loser is out.

Tennessee (4-2) at Alabama (5-2) - 12:30 PM

Both of these teams find themselves in surprisingly good shape in the race for their respective division titles.  However, neither team can afford another loss in conference play if they want to continue having SEC Championship Game aspirations.

Wyoming (4-2) at Air Force (5-2) - 2:00 PM

These are two of the four teams still in the Mountain-West race, but another loss would pretty much put either of these teams too far behind to catch conference leader Brigham Young.  Especially Air Force since they’ve already lost to the cougars.

Texas A&M (5-2) at Nebraska (4-3) - 2:05 PM

With the way the Big 12 is going, both of these teams could be still in the race for the Big 12 title, though neither of these teams, especially Nebraska, can afford another loss right now.  A loss here by Nebraska would also put their bowl eligibility in jeopardy.

Michigan State (5-2) at Ohio State (7-0) - 3:30 PM

This is the first true test for the #1 ranked team who never expected to be in the top spot all year.  Michigan State has a history of ruining Ohio State seasons, and they’ll hope to do it again this week.

Florida (4-2) at Kentucky (6-1) - 3:30 PM

This is a huge game in the race for the SEC East - and the national title in Kentucky’s case - as another loss by Florida pretty much eliminates their chances of winning the SEC East.  Meanwhile, Kentucky must win this game, especially if Tennessee defeats Alabama earlier in the day.

California (5-1) at UCLA (4-2) - 3:30 PM

Despite UCLA’s out of conference debacles against Utah and Notre Dame, the Bruins are currently tied for the Pac 10 lead, one of only two teams still undefeated in conference play.  California hopes to end that, and hopes to get back in the title race as well.

Texas Tech (6-1) at Missouri (5-1) - 3:30 PM

Missouri hopes to avoid dropping two straight Big 12 championship game previews in a row as they face the other good team in the Big 12 South Texas Tech.  Another loss puts Missouri in very difficult position in the Big 12 North. Meanwhile, with 4 teams with only 1 conference loss in the Southern division, Texas Tech must look to keep up in their half of the conference too.

Buffalo (3-4) at Syracuse (1-6) - 4:00 PM

Since I am a Syracuse grad and this blog is called “Code Orange,” I assert my right to include Syracuse games whenever I feel they’re important.  This is an important one.  If the Orange lose to Buffalo, Coach Robinson might as well start packing his bags right after the game.

Kansas (6-0) at Colorado (4-3) - 5:30 PM

Despite Colorado’s overall record, they’ll well in the race for the Big 12 North title.  A win by Kansas would effectively put them two games ahead of everyone else in the division except for Missouri, who they play in the season finale. However, Kansas also needs a win over Colorado because they don’t have a large margin of error as far as their future opponents either.

Kansas State (4-2) at Oklahoma State (4-3) - 7:05 PM

Both of these teams are still in contention for their division titles, but neither can afford another conference loss.  Also the loser needs to start worrying about bowl eligibility in general as well.

Michigan (5-2) at Illinois(5-2) - 8:00 PM

Michigan tries to keep pace with Ohio State while Illinois tries to stay relevant in the Big Ten title race.  Given that 9 teams still have 2 or fewer conference losses, it’s still anyone’s game, but picking up another loss definitely won’t help Illionis.

Auburn (5-2) at LSU (6-1) - 9:00 PM

LSU needs a rebound from their upset loss to Kentucky, and a second SEC loss may put the team everyone though would play in the title in serious trouble as far as getting the SEC title.

Now that the BCS is out, I’ll present what my hypothetical playoff bracket for Division I-A football. Ages ago I presented to my father my oh-so-brilliant playoff idea: Have a 16 team playoff. Include the 11 conference champions and the top 5 other teams from the BCS, then seed the teams based on their BCS rankings.

Now, given that the season isn’t over, we obviously don’t have any conference champions yet. As a result, I’ll either pick the team who currently has the best conference record, and if there is a tie, I’ll look to see if I can choose one via a head-to-head tiebreaker, and if not, then pick which of those teams are ranked highest in the BCS. So here are the entrants into the hypothetical playoff as of now:

ACC: Boston College (7-0)
Big East: South Florida (6-0)
Big Ten: Ohio State (7-0)
Big 12: Kansas (6-0)
Conference USA: Tulsa (4-2) - (OK, they’re all tied and none are in the BCS, so I picked Tulsa for being tied with 1 conference loss, and having the best overall record)
MAC: Miami (OH) (4-3) - OK, this one is tied in all respects. I picked Miami (OH) cause Central Michigan lost to a I-AA team.
Mountain West: Brigham Young (4-2)
Pac 10: Arizona State (7-0)
SEC: LSU (6-1)
Sun Belt: Troy (4-2)
WAC: Hawaii (7-0)
Wildcard: Oklahoma (5-1)
Wildcard: South Carolina (6-1)
Wildcard: Kentucky (6-1)
Wildcard: West Virginia (5-1)
Wildcard: Oregon (5-1)

Now, the bracket (using the BCS, then Billingsly’s computer rankings, to seed):

#1 Ohio State vs. #16 Miami (OH)
#8 Arizona State vs. #9 West Virginia
#5 Oklahoma vs. #12 Hawaii
#4 LSU vs. #13 Brigham Young
#3 Boston College vs. #14 Troy
#6 South Carolina vs. #11 Kansas
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Oregon
#2 South Florida vs. #15 Tulsa

There are several things I like about this layout:

With 6 BCS conferences and 5 wildcard spots, chances are the entire BCS Top 10 will get into the playoffs unless two BCS conferences just don’t have anyone in the top 10. Also, this allows the smaller conference to get a crack at the championship, so no one can complain that a undefeated Hawaii didn’t make the wildcard cut-0ff (and if you just did a “top 16 teams” playoff, Hawaii would be left out right now).

Not that I’m complaining, but I’m shocked the AP voters moved South Florida up to #2 - with 11 #1 votes for that matter. It’s no shock, however, that Ohio State is #1. Boston College is #3 in the AP and #2 in the Coaches poll with South Florida landing at #3 in the coaches.

Oklahoma falls in at #4 in both and, I think a little surprisingly, LSU comes in at #5 in both polls, so they’re in great position to get back into the title hunt.

South Carolina, Oregon, Kentucky, West Virginia, and California round out the top 10 in the AP while Oregon, West Virginia, South Carolina, Cal, and USC (who are tied for 9th) round out the top 10 in the coaches poll.

#12 Arizona State in the AP also received a #1 vote.

Hawaii actually moved down a spot in the AP poll to #17 - with only Cincinnati dropping below them, but both Kentucky and Kansas jumping over them. Hawaii stayed the same in the Coaches poll.

Three new teams join the AP Poll: #22 Texas Tech, #24 Michigan, and #25 Kansas State; while four new teams jump into the coaches poll: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Virginia, and Penn State. By the way, Michigan is a mere 1 point out of the top 25 in the coaches poll.

I don’t know when I’ve seen 6 different teams get #1 votes in the AP poll outside of the preseason poll or the first few weeks of the season, as Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College, Oklahoma, LSU (yes, LSU got a #1 vote despite losing), and Arizona State all receive #1 votes.

Edit: Thank you ESPN for answering this: the last time six teams received #1 votes after the first month of the season was on Nov. 25, 1990. In that poll, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Miami, Brigham Young, Texas, and Florida all had #1 votes. Six teams had recieved #1 votes the week before as well, after #1 Notre Dame lost.

The coaches poll is a little more sane with only the top 3 teams getting #1 votes.

The Harris poll isn’t out yet that I see, but we can look at the coaches poll and how it will influence the BCS ratings. Remember, the ranking doesn’t matter - it’s the number of points you get that matter.

There are 1500 total possible points in the Coaches poll, and here are the percentage breakdown for the top 5 teams:

Ohio State - 0.9967 (+ 0.0747)
Boston College - 0.9220 (+ 0.0420)
South Florida - .8800 (+ 0.0213)
Oklahoma - 0.8587 (+ 0.0767)
LSU - 0.7820

So clearly, the closest gap is between South Florida and Oklahoma.

As for the computers - only Sagarin is out, but here is his top 10:

1. South Florida
2. LSU
3. South Carolina
4. Kentucky
5. Boston College
6. Kansas
7. Ohio State
8. West Virginia
9. Arizona State
10. Virginia Tech

How about others? Oklahoma is 12th. California is 14th. Oregon is 19th. Southern Cal is 35th.

As for the other polls, what did they look like last week?

Billingsly had Ohio State #2, South Florida #3, Boston College #5, West Virginia #6, and South Carolina #7, with LSU #1 and Cal #3. Oklahoma was way down at #18.

Last Week, Colley had LSU #1, Arizona State #2, South Florida #3, Ohio State #4, Missouri #5, Cal #6, South Carolina #7, Boston College #8, Illinois #9, and Cincinnati #10. Oklahoma was way down at #20.

Meanwhile, Massey had LSU #1, South Florida #2, Missouri #3, Boston College #4, Ohio State #5, South Carolina #6, Arizona State #7, Cal #8, Illinois #9, and Virginia Tech #10. Once again, Oklahoma was way down at 30th.

The Wolfe and Anderson/Hester rankings don’t release rankings until the BCS starts coming out.

Things look great for South Florida to slide into the #2 slot I think, depending on how things shake out in the Harris poll. Out of the computer polls that we can see numbers for, South Florida leads Boston College in all 4. I’ll take a stab and say they’re average lead over Boston College is going to be around 2 spots. Not only that, but South Florida looks to be #1 or #2 in all 4 of those poll - #1 in two of them. But Boston College isn’t too far behind.

Ohio State is hurting in some of these - at 7th in the poll already out and looking to be #1 in probably 1 of the other 3 - their lead in the human polls should be more than enough to have them at #1 in the BCS.

The huge loser here is Oklahoma, whose best ranking is #12 in the Sagarin poll already released, and was ranked in the 20s or lower in 2 of the other 3 polls last week. Oklahoma may not even be in the BCS top 5 with those numbers.

If I had to guess, here is how the BCS will turn out:

1. Ohio State
2. South Florida (but very, very, very close to Boston College)
3. Boston College
4. LSU
5. West Virginia

Well, that was an exciting day of college football. Thanks to MSNBC, I finally found out the last time both the #1 and #2 teams lost on the same day: September 21, 1996, when Arizona State defeated #1 Nebraska 19-0 (was that the game with the 3 Nebraska safeties?) and when Florida defeated #2 Tennessee 35-29.

No we have a situation where the top three teams lined up for the title game are Ohio State, Boston College, and South Florida, and I’m not sure any of them are odds-on favorites to go the rest of the way undefeated.

Even though the Big Ten has looked less than impressive, Ohio State still has games against 5-2 Michigan State, at 5-2 Penn State, vs. 5-2 Wisconsin, vs. 5-2 Illinois, and at 5-2 Michigan (yes, 7 of the 11 Big Ten teams are 5-2). If one can do some fast math, Ohio State’s final 5 opponents have a combined record of 25-10. That’s not an easy schedule to get through, and pretty much every single one of those teams could beat the Buckeyes.

Next, we have Boston College who doesn’t have a much easier road to travel, playing at 6-1 Virginia Tech, vs. 4-2 Florida State, at 4-2 Maryland, at 4-2 Clemson, and vs. 4-3 Miami. And of course there would be the ACC Championship game, which would either be a rematch against Virginia Tech or against a currently 6-1 Virginia team.

South Florida doesn’t have an easy road either, though they do at least get to play a pair of teams with losing records, unlike Ohio State and BC. South Florida must play at 4-2 Rutgers then at 5-1 Connecticut, then play at home against 5-1 Cincinnati, play at 1-6 Syracuse, play at home against 4-3 Louisville, and then at 2-4 Pittsburgh.

The good thing for South Florida is that they’re using two of their away games to play teams they should easily beat, and in return are playing 2 of the remaining big 3 at home (Cincinnati and Louisville).

How about the teams waiting in the wings? Again, no obvious team that will win the rest of their games appears.

Oklahoma? They still have Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State and, if they make it there, the Big 12 championship game.

South Carolina? They have yet to play Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida, and Clemson, not to mention a likely rematch with LSU in the SEC title game.

West Virginia? They have Rutgers, Louisville, and Cincinnati 3 weeks in a row - two of them on the road.

Oregon? Oregon is actually in better shape than most of the teams ahead of them, but they still have Arizona State and Southern Cal.

How about LSU? LSU, despite losing, may be in the best shape of all with only 2 ranked teams left on their schedule - assuming the team they play in the SEC title game is ranked. Other than that, they have Auburn, Alabama, and Arkansas - all potential pitfalls, but none of which are games which I think they are in dire jeopardy of losing.

And how does Hawaii fit into all of this? Looking at the polls from last week, this is what I see: Hawaii was 16th. Cincinnati and Missouri should drop below them for losing, though Kentucky will probably jump over them, so there is 15th. Then lets look at all the teams above them who have yet to play each other, and how many teams above them will lose at least once more:

• Kentucky vs. South Carolina (1)
• Florida vs. Kentucky (2)
• Florida vs. South Carolina (3)
• LSU vs. Winner of SEC East - which will either be UK, SC, or Florida, or all three of the above teams will lose along the way (4)
• Boston College vs. Virginia Tech (5)
• Oregon vs. USC (6)
• Oregon vs. Arizona State (7)
• Arizona State vs. Cal (8 - assuming Cal falls in ahead of Hawaii)
• Arizona State vs. USC (9)
• Cal vs. USC (10)

So, in the worst case scenario for Hawaii, 6 teams ahead of them would lose (I figured LSU would win the SEC, meaning South Carolina, Kentucky, and Florida would all lose again, that Oregon and Cal win out - meaning Arizona State and USC lose again, and of course the loser of Boston College/Virginia Tech).

That means, if Hawaii wins out - WORST case, they should be in the top 10 at the end of the season - meaning they would be an almost certain BCS lock. Meanwhile, what happens if all hell breaks lose and everyone ahead of them loses again? Hawaii is probably definitely looking at a top 5.

The problem for them as far as getting into the title game is strength of schedule. Hawaii has played two I-AA teams, 2-5 UNLV, and are scheduled to play 2-4 Washington. And then there is the WAC schedule, where only two other teams besides themselves have winning records. I just don’t see it happening unless every other team has at least 2 losses.

In any case, I think Ohio State will clearly be #1 with Boston College in as a clear #2. We may see an interesting battle with #3 - will pollsters really put South Florida ahead of Oklahoma for the National Championship, even though Oklahoma has a loss? I’ll go out on a limb and say Oklahoma slips in at #3, with South Florida #4, and South Carolina #5.

and in any case, here are my personal rankings:

1. Ohio State (+2)
2. Boston College (+2)
3. Oklahoma (+2)
4. West Virginia (+2)
5. Oregon (+3)
6. South Carolina (+1)
7. South Florida (+2)
8. LSU (-7)
9. Virginia Tech (+2)
10. Kentucky (+6)
11. Southern Cal (+3)
12. California (-10)
13. Hawaii (+2)
14. Florida (+3)
15. Arizona State (+4)
16. Texas (+4)
17. Kansas (+5)
18. Missouri (-5)
19. Georgia (+1)
20. Cincinnati (-10)
21. Wisconsin (-9)
22. Texas Tech (N/A)
23. Virginia (+1)
24. Auburn (+1)
25. Michigan (N/A)

Dropped Out: #21 Illinois, #23 Texas A&M

Waiting in the Wings: Air Force, Alabama, Boise State (assuming they win today), Michigan State, Navy, Penn State, Texas A&M

Update 12:04 AM

Will a 6th undefeated team fall? Washington leads Arizona State 17-13 at halftime.

PS, today’s games are once again doing an number on my top 25 rankings…

Finals:

Tulsa 38, Marshall 31
Middle Tennessee State 21, Memphis 7

Update 10:57 PM

Auburn kicks their 3rd field goal of the day to beat Arkansas in a shootout 9-7.

More finals:

Louisiana Tech 22, New Mexico State 21
North Texas 31, Louisiana Monroe 21

Update 10:49 PM

The fifth undefeated team falls today: Louisville defeats Cincinnati 28-24.

And in the “where the hell are the points” game of the day: Alabama 7, Auburn 6 with less than a minutes to go.

Also:

Southern Miss 28, Southern Methodist 7

Update 10:46 PM

Ok, this is apparently what happened in Berkeley:

Cal was going to try to take a couple shots at getting a touchdown before kicking a field goal. However, with no one open on the play, instead of throwing the ball away, Cal quarterback Keven Riley tries to run the ball up the middle. In a rush, the Cal coaches try to rush the field goal team on the field, but cant set up before time expires.

Two dumb moves here: First, getting intentional grounding, but having the clock stopped is better than running with 14 seconds to go and with no time outs.

Second, wouldn’t it have been better to try to spike the ball THEN run your field goal unit onto the field instead of trying to get set up in like, 8 seconds?

With decision making like that by both the quarterback and the coaches, Cal pretty much deserved to lose.

Update 10:39 PM

Well, it’s apparently over in Berkely with #2 Cal losing to Oregon State 31-28. I’m not sure what happened since I’m not watching on TV, but from what I can see, Oregon State got called for pass interference with 14 seconds to go, which moved the ball down to the 12, and then Cal ran the ball for 3 yards to move it to the 9 and then…the game ended.

Surely Cal didn’t try to run the ball with 14 seconds to go with no time outs did they? In any case, both the #1 and #2 teams lost this week.

In Cincinnati, Louisville is about to pad their lead with under 3 minutes to go.

Update 10:35 PM

In field goal range! Cal hits a 37 yard pass to get down to the Oregon State 27 with 18 seconds to go.

Also, Cincy is forced to go 3-and-out.

Update 10:34 PM

In reality, Cal doesn’t have to go the entire 63. Getting about 30 more may due since they only need a field goal to tie.

Update 10:33 PM

Clutch. Cal throws a 20 yard pass on 3rd and 17, but they only have 34 seconds go to 63 yards now.

Update 10:29 PM

Cincinnati finally gets the ball back themselves with 5 minutes to go in their game. And Cal has 79 seconds to go 94 yards.

Update 10:28 PM

Oregon State goes 3-and-out and is forced to punt the ball back to Cal with about a minute and a half to go.

More Finals:

UAB 26, Tulane 21

Update 10:24 PM

Talk about guts. Louisville goes for it on 4th and 1 on their own 29 yard line, and make it to keep their drive alive and to keep running down the clock against Cincinnati. Also, Cal fails to recover the onsides kick.

Also, to add to the teams who I started to hype who immediately fell on their faces: Indiana loses to Michigan State 52 - 27.

Update 10:21 PM

California throws a 65 yard touchdown pass to claw back to within 3, 31-28, but there is only 2:31 to go in the game.

Update 10:19 PM

Missouri scores another late touchdown, but it’s too little, too late as Missouri becomes the 3rd undefeated team to fall today, losing to Oklahoma 41-31.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati kicks a field goal, but is still down to Louisville 28-24 with just under 9 minutes to go.

Also:

Arkansas State 52, Louisiana Lafayette 21

Update 10:09 PM

Boston College and South Florida must be loving this - Oregon State now has a 10 point lead on California, 31-21. Meanwhile, Louisville has taken a touchdown lead on Cincinnati 28-21.

Update 10:00 PM

Oklahoma puts the finishing blow on Missouri, taking a 41-24 lead with under 3 minutes left. Meanwhile Oregon State retakes the lead on Cal 26-21 halfway through the 4th quarter.

Update 9:44 PM

Cal has retaken the lead on Oregon State 21-20. Meanwhile Louisville ties Cincinnati at 21.

Update 9:38 PM

Just as I say that, Oklahoma scores again to make it 35-24.

Update 9:35 PM

We now may seriously have both the #1 and #2 teams lose. Oregon State leads Cal 20-14 at the end of the 3rd quarter.

Elsewhere, Georgia pulls it out against Vanderbilt, winning 20-17. meanwhile, Missouri has made it a game again in Norman, with the Sooners only leading 29-24 in the 4th quarter. Cincinnati still leads Louisville 21-14 in the 3rd quarter.

Other Final:

Air Force 45, Colorado sTate 21

Update 8:52 PM

Georgia ties up their game with Vanderbilt at 17 with about 3 minutes to go. Meanwhile, Oklahoma puts up another 6 on Missouri and leads 23-10. Oregon State closes the gap against Cal to 1, 14-13, at halftime.

More Finals:

Texas Christian 38, Stanford 36
Temple 24, Akron 20

Update 8:35 PM

Cal retakes the lead on Oregon State 14-10.

Update 8:24 PM

Will #2 fall as well? Oregon State pulls ahead of Cal 10-7 late in the 2nd quarter. When was the last time the #1 and #2 teams both lost on the same day?

Meanwhile, another final:

Fresno State 37, Idaho 24

Update 8:18 PM

Don’t forget about Kansas still being undefeated as well after their win over Baylor today while Hawaii kept their undefeated season going Friday. One other undefeated team already lost today - Connecticut. Cincinnati and Missouri try to keep their unbeaten seasons going in games currently in progress while Arizona State tries to keep their undefeated season intact tonight against Washington.

P.S. If Arizona State and Cal both win tonight, then Cal has UCLA next week, and if they can beat the Bruins, we’re looking at a Cal vs. Arizona State undefeated match-up on the 27th. And people thought that the Pac 10 game of the year would involve USC in some way (and it still might).

Update 8:15 PM

Ohio State, Boston College, and South Florida all took care of business in their hunt for the national championship. Can Cal, the heir apparent for the #1 ranking now, do it as well? Oregon State tries to tell them no and the two are tied at 7 in the 2nd quarter.

Meanwhile, Missouri puts up a touchdown on Oklahoma to close the gap to 17-10 at halftime. Georgia scores again to close their gap against Vanderbilt to 17-14 in the 3rd quarter. Also, Cincinnati leads Louisville 14-7 in the 2nd quarter.

Update 8:01 PM

#1 falls for the 2nd week in a row as Kentucky stops LSU on 4th down to win in triple overtime 43-37.

Update 8:00 PM

LSU now faces a 4th and 2 in overtime down 43-37. LSU has not missed a 4th down conversion all season before today.

Update 7:57 PM

Kentucky scores a touchdown but misses the 2 point conversion, putting the wildcats ahead 43-37.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma extends their lead on Missouri to 17-7 in the 2nd quarter.

Update 7:44 PM

LSU holds Kentucky on 3 and out, but Kentucky is able to exchange LSU’s field goal for their own and it’s now 37-37 going into the 3rd overtime. Remember, you can’t kick PATs any more starting with the 3rd overtime. Are we going to have another one of those fabled 7 overtime SEC classics again?

Update 7:41 PM

LSU is forced to settle for a 38 yard field goal in the 2nd overtime, but now lead 37-34.

Also, Boston College makes sure Notre Dame returns back to their losing ways, with the Eagles winning 27-14.

Update 7:32 PM

LSU quickly responds to tie Kentucky at 34 and we’re going to a 2nd overitme.

Update 7:28 PM

Kentucky scores a touchdown to start off overtime, with help of a roughing the passing penalty on LSU. They now lead 34-27.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma leads Missouri 10-7 early in the 2nd quarter. The SEC may get even crazier later as Vanderbilt leads Georgia 17-7 at halftime.

More Finals:

Houston 56, Rice 48
Western Michigan 17, Northern Illinois 13

Updated 7:17 PM

LSU just misses the field goal, and we’re going to overtime.

Updated 7:16 PM

LSU looks like, instead of throwing it into the end zone, that they’ll try a 57 yard field goal with a kicker who hasn’t kicked a field goal longer than 45 yards. However, we have our 3rd straight time out, so we’ll see which choice LSU makes.

Updated 7:14 PM

4th and 9 on the Kentucky 40 with 1 second left. LSU looks like they’ll take a shot at the end zone on the last play of regulation.

Updated 7:10 PM

LSU drives down the field, down to the Kentucky 41 with 39 seconds to go.

Updated 6:58 PM

LSU is able to hold Kentucky to just another field goal, but the game is now tied at 27.

Updated 6:57 PM

Southern California survives Arizona 20-13.

Updated 6:55 PM

Kentucky drives against LSU, moving the ball down to the LSU 16.

South Carolina survives a late comeback by North Carolina to win 21-15.

Also, Oregon finishes their rout of Washington State, winning 53-7.

Updated 6:50 PM

Kentucky kicks a field goal to narrow the margin against LSU to 27-24, them promptly gets an interception and they have it 1st and 10 in LSU territory.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech wipes out Texas A&M 35-7 as that’s a final now.

Updated 6:45 PM

Penn State finally finishes off Wisconsin 38-7. Virginia also survives Connecticut 17-16 as that moves to be a final. Central Michigan also defeats Army 47-23.

6:37 PM

LSU is on upset alert again this week as they only Lead Kentucky 27-21 in the 4th quarter. The same goes for Southern Cal, who only leads Arizona 17-13, also in the 4th quarter.

Meanwhile, Connecticut is trying to get some respect, but they currently trail Virginia 17-16 late in the 4th quarter.

Wisconsin is about to drop completely out of the Big 10 race as Penn State gets back on their feet in convincing fashion. The Nittany Lions currently lead the Badgers 38-7 late in the 4th quarter.

Texas Tech is well on their way to being a force to be reckoned with in the Big 12 South as they’re rolling all over Texas A&M 35-7 in the 4th quarter.

Next, some finals to catch us up:

Who would have thought that Buffalo would be the best Division I-A team in the state of New York? That may very well be the case as Buffalo wins their third game of the season by defeating Toledo 43-33.

Also, just as I finish about how the polls were dissing “only Wyoming” they go and make a fool out of me by losing to New Mexico 20-3.

In other finals:

Ball State 35, Western Kentucky 12
Tennessee 33, Mississippi State 21
Utah 23, San Diego State 7
Miami (OH) 47, Bowling Green 14

Updated 4:11

Minnesota tries to finish off Northwestern on a two-point conversion in the 2nd overtime, but fails.  Northwestern wins 49-48.
Meanwhile, Mississippi can’t quite come back against Alabama, losing 27-24.

Also, Texas finishes of their blowout of Iowa State 56-3.
Updated 3:51

One overtime isn’t enough for Minnesota and Northwestern as they’re tied at 42 going into a 2nd overtime.

Meanwhile, Ohio defeats Eastern Michigan 48 - 42.

Also, Oklahoma State blows out Nebraska 45-14 to say “not so fast” on the Big 12 north being the better division this year.

Updated 3:39

Minnesota and Northwestern head to overtime tied at 35 to see who will reside in the cellar on the Big Ten.

More blowouts:

Rutgers 38, Syracuse 14
Virginia Tech 43, Duke 14
Michigan 48, Purdue 21

Updated 3:17 PM

Georgia Tech ends up pulling it out against Miami 17-14.

Otherwise, may the blowouts commence:

Ohio State 48, Kent State 3

Updated 2:53

Illinois finally impressed enough pollsters to get ranked, then immediately blows it. The Illini throw and interception in the red zone with around a minute left and lose to Iowa 10-6.

Updated 2:46 PM

Alabama and Mississippi are in a fight right now, tied at 17 in the middle of the 3rd quarter. Meanwhile, time is running out for Illinois, with only a couple minutes left to go in that game.

Updated 2:26 PM

Illini in trouble? They’re currently down to Iowa 10-6 halfway through the 4th quarter. Meanwhile, Rutgers is ahead of Syracuse, but not by much, leading 24-14 in the middle of the 3rd quarter.

Georgia Tech and Miami are also in a good game with the Yellow Jackets leading 14-7 in the 3rd quarter.

Meanwhile, Buffalo is well on their way to getting their 3rd win of the season, with the Bulls leading Toledo 30-13 in the 2nd quarter.

1:02 pm

Is Syracuse only good against good teams? They are currently tied with Rutgers at 14 early in the 2nd quarter. Also in the Big East, South Florida is having no problem with their cross-state rival UCF, leading 19-7.

Michigan also looks like they’re going to continue to roll, leading Purdue 17-7 at the start of the 2nd quarter.

I was going to make the last post a games to watch post, but then it turned into a tirade against the polls this week, so I’ll make this the games to watch post instead.

Florida State (4-1) at Wake Forest (3-2) - 7:30 PM, Thursday

This is a huge game in the ACC Atlantic Division was the winner stays within one game of Boston College in the division, while the loser is pretty close to out of the division race.  Florida State needs to prove that it has fully recovered from their game against Clemson while Wake needs to prove that they can win against a quality opponent after having close games against Army and Duke and needed to come back from 21 points down against Maryland to win.

Central Florida (3-2) at South Florida (5-0) - 12:00 PM

The game to determine the king of directional Florida, UCF can be a tricky opponent, almost pulling off an upset win against Texas.  South Florida needs a big win to amend for their close against against Florida Atlantic last week.

Purdue (5-1) at Michigan (4-2) - 12:00 PM

Michigan has started to roll after their embarrassing start, but still needs to knock off the lesser Big 10 opponents if they wish to keep their eyes on Ohio State and the Big Ten Championship.  Purdue, meanwhile, doesn’t want a good 5-0 start to go down the tube fast with two straight losses to the conference’s standard bearers.

Oklahoma State (3-3) at Nebraska (4-2) - 12:30 PM

Despite being 3-3, Oklahoma State is still only 1 game out of the Big 12 south lead, and a win over Nebraska would get them over a big hurdle to get them back into the race.  A loss by either team will make it very difficult for either to have a chance to play for their division.

Buffalo (2-4) at Toledo (2-4) - 1:00 PM

Has Buffalo ever had 3 wins since moving up to I-A football? They have a good shot at it this week as they take on a Toledo team which barely got by a I-AA team and beat a 1-5 Iowa State team by 1.  If they win, Buffalo will move to 3-1 in the MAC (though, apparently only divisional games count towards the division championship.  Buffalo is 2-0 in their division) and will people start *gasp* evening consider the possibility for Buffalo as a challenger for the Eastern Division title?

Tennessee (3-2) at Mississippi State (4-2) - 2:30 PM

The only reason why this is a game to watch is to see if Tennessee can continue on from their big win over Georgia.  Tennessee is one of three teams in the SEC East who control their own destiny for the division title, and probably have the easiest road of the three.  Tennessee will be removed from the driver’s seat if they lose to the other Bulldog team.

Texas A&M (5-1) at Texas Tech (5-1) - 3:30 PM

It’s the battle of the 5-1 should-be-ranked Big 12 teams.  The winner better be ranked or the human polls should probably be removed entirely from the BCS calculations.  Texas A&M can take a big leap forward in the Big 12 South if they win.  However, Texas Tech can essentially reset the division if they win.

Wisconsin (5-1) at Penn State (4-2) - 3:30 PM

Both of these teams depserately needs to rebound.  Penn State is probably already out of the Big Ten race, but is almost certainly eliminated with a 3rd conference loss.  Wisconsin also needs a win to keep their hopes alive.

LSU (6-0) at Kentucky (5-1) - 3:30 PM

Along with Tennessee, Kentucky is another team in the SEC East who controls their own destiny.  However, unlike Tennessee, they have the unfortunately duty of having to play LSU.  LSU can add a few more links to their armor of #1 votes with another win over a ranked team, while Kentucky probably must pull the upset to keep any hope of winning the division alive.

Connecticut (5-0) at Virginia (5-1) - 3:30 PM

A very curious out of conference match-up at both teams need this win to prove that they are, really, for real.  Virginia is still haunted by their Week 1 loss to Wyoming, but hasn’t played a team with a winning record otherwise.  Connecticut, on the other hand, while 5-0, hasn’t played anyone yet either, with their most impressive win being over 3-3 Akron.  This will be the first test for both teams, and the winner will likely become a strong contender to win their conference or division.

Missouri (5-0) at Oklahoma (5-1) - 6:30 PM

This is unquestionably the game of the week as Missouri tries to send a message to the rest of the Big 12 - and nation - that they are, indeed, for real.  Oklahoma will try to reassert themselves as kings of the Midwest by adding a win over undefeated Missouri.  A win would almost certainly catapult the Tigers into the Top 10 and National Championship talk may start buzzing around Columbia.

Indiana (5-1) at Michigan State (4-2) - 7:00 PM

Indiana has been oh-so-close to getting bowl eligible several times in the past few years, but haven’t been able to reach that 6-win mark.  They can do it this week against Michigan State, on top of getting their first true quality win and staying as a valid contender for the Big Ten title.

Louisville (3-3) at Cincinnati (6-0) - 7:00 PM

If Louisville were the team they were supposed to be, this would have challenged the Missouri/Oklahoma game for game of the week status.  Instead, Louisville comes into this game trying to stop the bleeding, having lost 2 in a row and 3 of their last 4.  They’ll have a tough time doing so against Cincinnati.  However, looking ahead at games against UConn, South Florida, West Virginia, and Rutgers, Louisville needs to try to find some games to win, or else they may not even go bowling.

Auburn (4-2) at Arkansas (3-2) - 7:45 PM

This is a game between two SEC teams who were hoping to have much better seasons than they have.  With two conference losses, Arkansas is probably already out of the SEC West race, but they can receive a final blow if Auburn beats them.  Meanwhile, Auburn themselves can’t afford another conference loss if they want to keep up with LSU.

East Carolina (3-3) at UTEP (4-2) - 9:05 PM

This is an interesting game if for no other reason than this could be a preview of the Conference USA title game.  Both teams currently lead their division, though neither can really afford a loss at this point in the season or else they’ll be playing catch-up in their division the rest of the way.

Colorado (4-2) at Kansas State (3-2) - 9:15 PM

Colorado is leading the Big 12 North along with Missouri.  If Missouri picks up the win against Oklahoma, Colorado really needs this win to keep up.  Meanwhile, Kansas State needs a win to stay in the division race altogether, or else they’ll fall 2 games back of (at least) Colorado.

OK, tell me how Southern California loses to Stanford, and only drops 8 spots in the AP poll and 6 spots in the Coaches poll, yet Wisconsin loses to now 5-1 and #18/19 ranked Illinois, and they drop 14 spots in the AP and 10 spots in the Coaches poll? I can at least see dropping them 10 spots for being in the top 5 and losing, but why does USC stay in the top 10? For that matter, why does Florida drop 7 spots in the Coaches poll for almost beating now #1 LSU?

Look, I’m generally a fan of the Pac 10 and think they don’t get as much respect as other conference (though that finally seems to have changed this year), and I have a major beef against the SEC, but dropping Florida - who lost to #1 (and deservedly so) LSU - more than USC, who lost to lowly previously 1-win Stanford, goes beyond stupid. Other than just voting for USC because they’re USC, it makes absolutely no sense and a stain on college football polling I think. I know that the polls often give preference to big name teams for the most part, but that’s ridiculous.

It just doesn’t make sense. And why is 5-1 Purdue still in the Coaches poll and why is 3-2 Tennessee back in the AP poll? Aren’t 5-1 Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Indiana, or Virginia good enough yet? What about 5-0 Connecticut, who isn’t even in the top 30 of either poll if you go through “others receiving votes.” How about 4-1 Wyoming who beat Virginia, and gets a grand total of 20 total points in both polls combined (only 2 in the AP!)

While the entire SEC East sans Vanderbilt is ranked (and knowing the pollsters, they would be too if they had beaten Auburn), we have all these other undefeated or 1-loss teams being looked over because they’re only Wyoming or only Indiana and why should we rank “only Wyoming” over the grand power that is Tennessee?

Well, the polls get completely messed up again this week as another 4 top-10 teams lose, bringing up the total for 9 in the past week in the AP poll and a total of 11 top-25 teams losing (making a total of 20 over the past 2 weeks in the AP poll and 21 in the coaches poll).

What this does is two things: gives teams who don’t normally get a shot at being ranked a shot at being ranked, and also gives teams who messed up last week a great opportunity to jump almost back to where they were before their loss.

So, Let’s look at what to look for when the polls come out:

1) Who drops out, Who Jumps in?

We’re looking at at least 5 teams (Rutgers, Clemson, Purdue, Kansas State, and Nebraska) and maybe 6 (Texas) drop out of the AP poll and probably 5 dropping out of the coaches poll (unless they drop Texas from 16th all the way out).  That brings up the question - who replaces those teams?

I think there are currently 3 obvious teams who will fill the void: Illinois, Kansas, and Texas A&M.  Except for Texas A&M, they all beat top-25 teams and have either 1 loss or are undefeated.  To me, these three are no brainers.  But who else, since that’s only 3 and we’re going to have at least 5 new spots?

I think teams like Florida State, Indiana, Texas Tech, and Virginia - all with only 1 loss and in BCS Conferences - all have arguments for getting in.  Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee are a trio of SEC teams with 2-losses who could also make an argument for being ranked.  And what about Connecticut - undefeated in the Big East, though they still haven’t really played anyone yet.

As for possible non-BCS teams, Boise State could jump back into the Top 25 pretty soon, and 1-loss Wyoming has a strong argument as well.

2) How far to they fall?

This applies to several teams, but specifically to Southern Cal, Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Florida - the four top-10 teams who lost.  Florida lost to #1 LSU, and only after they gave up a touchdown with only a minute to go, so Florida may only be looking at a 4-spot drop or so - enough to keep them within sight of the top 10 if teams ahead of them slip up.

The other SEC team in the group - Kentucky - also lost to a ranked South Carolina team, so their fall shouldn’t be so bad either - they probably should at least stay in the top 20, if not the top 15.

Wisconsin and USC are different matters, however.  Wisconsin’s drop may be salvaged by the fact that Illinois will now almost certainly be ranked, so they will probably stay in the top 15.  USC will probably stay in the top 15, just because they’d have to drop more than 13 spots to drop out of it - but given that they lost to Stanford, it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility.  USC has looked less-than-stellar all season, and LSU has been eating into their #1 votes all year, so pollsters already had doubts about them.

3) How Far to They Jump?

With a loss of 2 top-10 SEC teams this week (Kentucky, Florida), another is ready to take their place - South Carolina.  Ranked 11 in the AP poll, they’re pretty much a lock for a top-10 spot in that poll.  Being ranked 18th in the coaches poll makes that trip a lot harder, though 6 teams ahead of them did lose, and they did beat the #8 team.

The other team who may jump a lot is Missouri, who destroyed ranked Nebraska last night.  Again, six teams ahead of them lost, so they could potentially be looking at a top-10 ranking as well.

Also, where do teams like Illinois and Kansas start in the top 25?  Are they in the 21-25 group, or do pollsters jump them straight into the top 20?

4) Who will be the top 5 and 10?

We shouldn’t need any trouble deciding who the top 3 will be - 1) LSU, 2) California, and 3) Ohio State, though it is conceivable that Ohio State could jump Cal for 2nd.

Who will the other 2 top 5 teams be, though?  I think the pollsters will be comfortable enough with putting Boston College in the top 5, but will they really put South Florida into the top 5, even with their close game against Florida Atlantic?  The problem for the pollsters is that there really isn’t anyone else close to jump them.  Oklahoma is currently ranked 10th and beat Texas, so if any team jumps South Florida for a top 5 spot, it could be them.

As for the rest of the top 10, I think, at least in the AP, LSU, Ohio State, California, Boston College, South Florida, Oklahoma, and South Carolina are locks for top 10 spots, along with probably West Virginia.  That leaves 2 more spots.  USC or Wisconsin not dropping as much as I think they will could fill those spots, and Oregon and Virginia Tech are next in line when you go down the rankings, but right below them you have Missouri and Cincinnati teams with big wins this weekend.  Can they jump over those bigger-named teams and get into the top 10?

That may be though, though.  That’d be a 10-spot jump for Cincinnati in the AP and a 14 jump spot in the coaches; while Missouri would need to jump 7 spots in both polls.

What type of college football world would we live in if the top 10 included South Florida, South Carolina, Cincinnati, and Missouri?

5) State of the Conference standings

Not really poll related, but it’s not too early to talk about conference championship races.

In the ACC Atlantic Division, Boston College is 1 game ahead of both Florida State and Maryland while they are 2 games ahead of Clemson and Wake Forest (due to defeating Wake).  BC looks like the team to beat in this division, but a possibly resurgent Florida State and a tricky Maryland team, not to mention a Clemson team who can play well on up weeks all could trip the Eagles up.

The ACC Coastal division has come down to Virginia and Virginia Tech, with those two teams still undefeated in the conference, and two or more games ahead of everyone but Miami, who doesn’t look like they’re much of a threat after being walloped by UNC for most of their game yesterday.

The Big East looks like it’s a four team race between Cincinnati, Connecticut, South Florida, and West Virginia now that Rutgers looks weaker than expected and Louisville is in a crash dive.  UConn is the biggest question mark here, since they still haven’t really played anyone.  The question is who will get through the mind field.  South Florida has already defeated West Virginia while Cincinnati has already gotten past Rutgers, but they still have to play 2 of the other 3 expected good teams, as well as each other.

The Big 10 race is still wide open with Ohio State, Illinos, and yes Michigan all still undefeated in the conference, with Wisconsin and Indiana close behind with only 1 conference loss.  Ohio State is clearly the team to beat, but they still have a long and tough road ahead.

Who would have thought that the Big 12 North could come down to Colorado, Missouri, and Kansas?  Yet that is exactly what it appears is the case as all 3 of those teams remain undefeated in conference play.   Meanwhile the Big 12 South is still wide open, but Texas A&M and Oklahoma have to be the odds-on favorites to win that division.

The Pac 10 got a gut check this weekend with USC losing a conference game to lowly Stanford and UCLA not exactly looking impressive against previously winless Notre Dame.  UCLA is still undefeated in the conference, but if they play like they did against Notre Dame in conference play, don’t expect that to last.  California is definitely the favorite to win the conference now, but Arizona State is still lurking, as well as their game against USC.

Finally, in the SEC, the eastern division is now lead by Tennessee, South Carolina, and Kentucky, now that Florida and Georgia both have 2 conference losses.  Tennessee is probably in the best position by already having played both the Gators and the Bulldogs and get a huge break by not having to play LSU.  They do still have South Carolina and Kentucky left, though.  The Gamecocks have already played Georgia and LSU, but have Tennessee and Florida left, while Kentucky has Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, and LSU all left to play.  The winner of the SEC East may end up having at least 2 conference losses after all is said and done.

LSU is only a game ahead of Auburn and Alabama in the Western Division, but have games with both of them in the next month.  LSU may be able to clench the division by the first weekend in November.

6) My Rankings

Well, a lot of losses in the top 25 again, so there are, expectedly, some shakeups in the poll:

1. LSU (–)
2. California (+1)
3. Ohio State (+1)
4. Boston College (+2)
5. Oklahoma (+5)
6. West Virginia (+3)
7. South Carolina (+8)
8. Oregon (+5)
9. South Florida (+3)
10. Cincinnati (+7)
11. Virginia Tech (+5)
12. Wisconsin (-7)
13. Missouri (+6)
14. Southern Cal (-12)
15. Hawaii (+3)
16. Kentucky (-9)
17. Florida (-6)
18. Georgia (-10)
19. Arizona State (+3)
20. Texas (-6)
21. Illinois (NA)
22. Kansas (NA)
23. Texas A&M  (NA)
24. Virginia (NA)
25. Auburn (NA)

Dropped Out: #20 Rutgers, #21 Clemson, #23 Nebraska, #24 Purdue, #25 UCLA

Waiting in the Wings:  Alabama, Boise state, Connecticut, Florida State, Indiana, Texas Tech, Wyoming

The upset of the day is easily Stanford taking advantage of a weak-looking Southern Cal and winning 24-23.  USC becomes the 2nd top 5 team to lose today.  The other Los Angeles team goes amiss as well as UCLA hands Notre Dame their first win of the season 20-6.

In rivalry games with conference championship implications, Oklahoma bounces back to defeat Texas in the Red River Shootout 28-21 to keep Oklahoma in the Big 12 South race.  Meanwhile, Texas A&M mounts a huge comeback, scoring 24 of the last 30 points to beat Oklahoma State 24-23.

In the SEC, newly minted #1 LSU scores with around a minute left to play to get by Florida 28-24.  Meanwhile, Tennessee runs all over Georgia  35-14 and now leads the SEC East along with South Carolina and Kentucky.  Tennessee is the only team who has played both Florida and Georgia.

In the ACC, Virginia Tech beat up Clemson 41-23.  That puts Clemson 2 games behind Boston College in the Atlantic Division while the two Virginia teams are the only remaining teams still undefeated in conference play in the Coastal Division.

In the Big 10, Ohio State made a statement against Purdue, winning 23-7.

In the Big East, Cincinnati shows that they are for real by getting past Rutgers 28-23.

Temple, Buffalo, and Army, three much maligned teams, all pick up wins today.  Temple defeated Northern Illinois 16-15, Buffalo ran over Ohio 31-10, while Army squeezes past Tulane in overtime 20-17.

Only three games are still in progress.  Tulsa leads UTEP late in the 4th quarter 47-41, Missouri is running all over Nebraska 41-6 with 10 minutes to go, and Hawaii leads Utah State 7-3 halfway through the 1st quarter.

Other Finals:

Wake Forest 41, Duke 36
Wyoming 24,  Texas Christian 21
Mississippi 24, Louisiana Tech 0
Mississippi State 30, UAB 13
Miami (OH) 20, Kent State 13
Alabama 30, Houston 24
Penn State 27, Iowa 7
Florida State 27, North Carolina State 10
South Florida 35, Florida Atlantic 23
San Jose State 28, Idaho 20
Arizona State 23, Washington State 20
Oregon State 31, Arizona 16
Fresno State 49, Nevada 41
San Diego State 24, Colorado State 20
Troy 34, Florida International 16
Toledo 35, Liberty 34
Louisiana Lafayette 38, North Texas 29
Virginia 23, Middle Tennessee State 21
Texas Tech 42, Iowa State 17
Akron 39, Western Michigan 38
Louisiana Monroe 30, Arkansas State 13
Arkansas 34, Chattanooga 15
Colorado 43, Baylor 23
East Carolina 52, Central Florida 38
Air Force 31, UNLV 14