Code Orange

Well, that was an exciting day of college football. Thanks to MSNBC, I finally found out the last time both the #1 and #2 teams lost on the same day: September 21, 1996, when Arizona State defeated #1 Nebraska 19-0 (was that the game with the 3 Nebraska safeties?) and when Florida defeated #2 Tennessee 35-29.

No we have a situation where the top three teams lined up for the title game are Ohio State, Boston College, and South Florida, and I’m not sure any of them are odds-on favorites to go the rest of the way undefeated.

Even though the Big Ten has looked less than impressive, Ohio State still has games against 5-2 Michigan State, at 5-2 Penn State, vs. 5-2 Wisconsin, vs. 5-2 Illinois, and at 5-2 Michigan (yes, 7 of the 11 Big Ten teams are 5-2). If one can do some fast math, Ohio State’s final 5 opponents have a combined record of 25-10. That’s not an easy schedule to get through, and pretty much every single one of those teams could beat the Buckeyes.

Next, we have Boston College who doesn’t have a much easier road to travel, playing at 6-1 Virginia Tech, vs. 4-2 Florida State, at 4-2 Maryland, at 4-2 Clemson, and vs. 4-3 Miami. And of course there would be the ACC Championship game, which would either be a rematch against Virginia Tech or against a currently 6-1 Virginia team.

South Florida doesn’t have an easy road either, though they do at least get to play a pair of teams with losing records, unlike Ohio State and BC. South Florida must play at 4-2 Rutgers then at 5-1 Connecticut, then play at home against 5-1 Cincinnati, play at 1-6 Syracuse, play at home against 4-3 Louisville, and then at 2-4 Pittsburgh.

The good thing for South Florida is that they’re using two of their away games to play teams they should easily beat, and in return are playing 2 of the remaining big 3 at home (Cincinnati and Louisville).

How about the teams waiting in the wings? Again, no obvious team that will win the rest of their games appears.

Oklahoma? They still have Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State and, if they make it there, the Big 12 championship game.

South Carolina? They have yet to play Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida, and Clemson, not to mention a likely rematch with LSU in the SEC title game.

West Virginia? They have Rutgers, Louisville, and Cincinnati 3 weeks in a row - two of them on the road.

Oregon? Oregon is actually in better shape than most of the teams ahead of them, but they still have Arizona State and Southern Cal.

How about LSU? LSU, despite losing, may be in the best shape of all with only 2 ranked teams left on their schedule - assuming the team they play in the SEC title game is ranked. Other than that, they have Auburn, Alabama, and Arkansas - all potential pitfalls, but none of which are games which I think they are in dire jeopardy of losing.

And how does Hawaii fit into all of this? Looking at the polls from last week, this is what I see: Hawaii was 16th. Cincinnati and Missouri should drop below them for losing, though Kentucky will probably jump over them, so there is 15th. Then lets look at all the teams above them who have yet to play each other, and how many teams above them will lose at least once more:

• Kentucky vs. South Carolina (1)
• Florida vs. Kentucky (2)
• Florida vs. South Carolina (3)
• LSU vs. Winner of SEC East - which will either be UK, SC, or Florida, or all three of the above teams will lose along the way (4)
• Boston College vs. Virginia Tech (5)
• Oregon vs. USC (6)
• Oregon vs. Arizona State (7)
• Arizona State vs. Cal (8 - assuming Cal falls in ahead of Hawaii)
• Arizona State vs. USC (9)
• Cal vs. USC (10)

So, in the worst case scenario for Hawaii, 6 teams ahead of them would lose (I figured LSU would win the SEC, meaning South Carolina, Kentucky, and Florida would all lose again, that Oregon and Cal win out - meaning Arizona State and USC lose again, and of course the loser of Boston College/Virginia Tech).

That means, if Hawaii wins out - WORST case, they should be in the top 10 at the end of the season - meaning they would be an almost certain BCS lock. Meanwhile, what happens if all hell breaks lose and everyone ahead of them loses again? Hawaii is probably definitely looking at a top 5.

The problem for them as far as getting into the title game is strength of schedule. Hawaii has played two I-AA teams, 2-5 UNLV, and are scheduled to play 2-4 Washington. And then there is the WAC schedule, where only two other teams besides themselves have winning records. I just don’t see it happening unless every other team has at least 2 losses.

In any case, I think Ohio State will clearly be #1 with Boston College in as a clear #2. We may see an interesting battle with #3 - will pollsters really put South Florida ahead of Oklahoma for the National Championship, even though Oklahoma has a loss? I’ll go out on a limb and say Oklahoma slips in at #3, with South Florida #4, and South Carolina #5.

and in any case, here are my personal rankings:

1. Ohio State (+2)
2. Boston College (+2)
3. Oklahoma (+2)
4. West Virginia (+2)
5. Oregon (+3)
6. South Carolina (+1)
7. South Florida (+2)
8. LSU (-7)
9. Virginia Tech (+2)
10. Kentucky (+6)
11. Southern Cal (+3)
12. California (-10)
13. Hawaii (+2)
14. Florida (+3)
15. Arizona State (+4)
16. Texas (+4)
17. Kansas (+5)
18. Missouri (-5)
19. Georgia (+1)
20. Cincinnati (-10)
21. Wisconsin (-9)
22. Texas Tech (N/A)
23. Virginia (+1)
24. Auburn (+1)
25. Michigan (N/A)

Dropped Out: #21 Illinois, #23 Texas A&M

Waiting in the Wings: Air Force, Alabama, Boise State (assuming they win today), Michigan State, Navy, Penn State, Texas A&M