Code Orange

Polling Thoughts and My Top 25

7 10 2007

Well, the polls get completely messed up again this week as another 4 top-10 teams lose, bringing up the total for 9 in the past week in the AP poll and a total of 11 top-25 teams losing (making a total of 20 over the past 2 weeks in the AP poll and 21 in the coaches poll).

What this does is two things: gives teams who don’t normally get a shot at being ranked a shot at being ranked, and also gives teams who messed up last week a great opportunity to jump almost back to where they were before their loss.

So, Let’s look at what to look for when the polls come out:

1) Who drops out, Who Jumps in?

We’re looking at at least 5 teams (Rutgers, Clemson, Purdue, Kansas State, and Nebraska) and maybe 6 (Texas) drop out of the AP poll and probably 5 dropping out of the coaches poll (unless they drop Texas from 16th all the way out). That brings up the question - who replaces those teams?

I think there are currently 3 obvious teams who will fill the void: Illinois, Kansas, and Texas A&M. Except for Texas A&M, they all beat top-25 teams and have either 1 loss or are undefeated. To me, these three are no brainers. But who else, since that’s only 3 and we’re going to have at least 5 new spots?

I think teams like Florida State, Indiana, Texas Tech, and Virginia - all with only 1 loss and in BCS Conferences - all have arguments for getting in. Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee are a trio of SEC teams with 2-losses who could also make an argument for being ranked. And what about Connecticut - undefeated in the Big East, though they still haven’t really played anyone yet.

As for possible non-BCS teams, Boise State could jump back into the Top 25 pretty soon, and 1-loss Wyoming has a strong argument as well.

2) How far to they fall?

This applies to several teams, but specifically to Southern Cal, Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Florida - the four top-10 teams who lost. Florida lost to #1 LSU, and only after they gave up a touchdown with only a minute to go, so Florida may only be looking at a 4-spot drop or so - enough to keep them within sight of the top 10 if teams ahead of them slip up.

The other SEC team in the group - Kentucky - also lost to a ranked South Carolina team, so their fall shouldn’t be so bad either - they probably should at least stay in the top 20, if not the top 15.

Wisconsin and USC are different matters, however. Wisconsin’s drop may be salvaged by the fact that Illinois will now almost certainly be ranked, so they will probably stay in the top 15. USC will probably stay in the top 15, just because they’d have to drop more than 13 spots to drop out of it - but given that they lost to Stanford, it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility. USC has looked less-than-stellar all season, and LSU has been eating into their #1 votes all year, so pollsters already had doubts about them.

3) How Far to They Jump?

With a loss of 2 top-10 SEC teams this week (Kentucky, Florida), another is ready to take their place - South Carolina. Ranked 11 in the AP poll, they’re pretty much a lock for a top-10 spot in that poll. Being ranked 18th in the coaches poll makes that trip a lot harder, though 6 teams ahead of them did lose, and they did beat the #8 team.

The other team who may jump a lot is Missouri, who destroyed ranked Nebraska last night. Again, six teams ahead of them lost, so they could potentially be looking at a top-10 ranking as well.

Also, where do teams like Illinois and Kansas start in the top 25? Are they in the 21-25 group, or do pollsters jump them straight into the top 20?

4) Who will be the top 5 and 10?

We shouldn’t need any trouble deciding who the top 3 will be - 1) LSU, 2) California, and 3) Ohio State, though it is conceivable that Ohio State could jump Cal for 2nd.

Who will the other 2 top 5 teams be, though? I think the pollsters will be comfortable enough with putting Boston College in the top 5, but will they really put South Florida into the top 5, even with their close game against Florida Atlantic? The problem for the pollsters is that there really isn’t anyone else close to jump them. Oklahoma is currently ranked 10th and beat Texas, so if any team jumps South Florida for a top 5 spot, it could be them.

As for the rest of the top 10, I think, at least in the AP, LSU, Ohio State, California, Boston College, South Florida, Oklahoma, and South Carolina are locks for top 10 spots, along with probably West Virginia. That leaves 2 more spots. USC or Wisconsin not dropping as much as I think they will could fill those spots, and Oregon and Virginia Tech are next in line when you go down the rankings, but right below them you have Missouri and Cincinnati teams with big wins this weekend. Can they jump over those bigger-named teams and get into the top 10?

That may be though, though. That’d be a 10-spot jump for Cincinnati in the AP and a 14 jump spot in the coaches; while Missouri would need to jump 7 spots in both polls.

What type of college football world would we live in if the top 10 included South Florida, South Carolina, Cincinnati, and Missouri?

5) State of the Conference standings

Not really poll related, but it’s not too early to talk about conference championship races.

In the ACC Atlantic Division, Boston College is 1 game ahead of both Florida State and Maryland while they are 2 games ahead of Clemson and Wake Forest (due to defeating Wake). BC looks like the team to beat in this division, but a possibly resurgent Florida State and a tricky Maryland team, not to mention a Clemson team who can play well on up weeks all could trip the Eagles up.

The ACC Coastal division has come down to Virginia and Virginia Tech, with those two teams still undefeated in the conference, and two or more games ahead of everyone but Miami, who doesn’t look like they’re much of a threat after being walloped by UNC for most of their game yesterday.

The Big East looks like it’s a four team race between Cincinnati, Connecticut, South Florida, and West Virginia now that Rutgers looks weaker than expected and Louisville is in a crash dive. UConn is the biggest question mark here, since they still haven’t really played anyone. The question is who will get through the mind field. South Florida has already defeated West Virginia while Cincinnati has already gotten past Rutgers, but they still have to play 2 of the other 3 expected good teams, as well as each other.

The Big 10 race is still wide open with Ohio State, Illinos, and yes Michigan all still undefeated in the conference, with Wisconsin and Indiana close behind with only 1 conference loss. Ohio State is clearly the team to beat, but they still have a long and tough road ahead.

Who would have thought that the Big 12 North could come down to Colorado, Missouri, and Kansas? Yet that is exactly what it appears is the case as all 3 of those teams remain undefeated in conference play. Meanwhile the Big 12 South is still wide open, but Texas A&M and Oklahoma have to be the odds-on favorites to win that division.

The Pac 10 got a gut check this weekend with USC losing a conference game to lowly Stanford and UCLA not exactly looking impressive against previously winless Notre Dame. UCLA is still undefeated in the conference, but if they play like they did against Notre Dame in conference play, don’t expect that to last. California is definitely the favorite to win the conference now, but Arizona State is still lurking, as well as their game against USC.

Finally, in the SEC, the eastern division is now lead by Tennessee, South Carolina, and Kentucky, now that Florida and Georgia both have 2 conference losses. Tennessee is probably in the best position by already having played both the Gators and the Bulldogs and get a huge break by not having to play LSU. They do still have South Carolina and Kentucky left, though. The Gamecocks have already played Georgia and LSU, but have Tennessee and Florida left, while Kentucky has Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, and LSU all left to play. The winner of the SEC East may end up having at least 2 conference losses after all is said and done.

LSU is only a game ahead of Auburn and Alabama in the Western Division, but have games with both of them in the next month. LSU may be able to clench the division by the first weekend in November.

6) My Rankings

Well, a lot of losses in the top 25 again, so there are, expectedly, some shakeups in the poll:

1. LSU (–)
2. California (+1)
3. Ohio State (+1)
4. Boston College (+2)
5. Oklahoma (+5)
6. West Virginia (+3)
7. South Carolina (+8)
8. Oregon (+5)
9. South Florida (+3)
10. Cincinnati (+7)
11. Virginia Tech (+5)
12. Wisconsin (-7)
13. Missouri (+6)
14. Southern Cal (-12)
15. Hawaii (+3)
16. Kentucky (-9)
17. Florida (-6)
18. Georgia (-10)
19. Arizona State (+3)
20. Texas (-6)
21. Illinois (NA)
22. Kansas (NA)
23. Texas A&M (NA)
24. Virginia (NA)
25. Auburn (NA)