Code Orange

Just looking at the polls, several big changes are probably going to occur once the polls get released later today. Some of these include:

1) LSU taking over #1 in the AP Poll

USC’s #1 ranking in the coaches poll appears to be pretty safe, but it is anything but safe in the AP poll where USC has 43 #1 votes to LSU’s 22. All we need are a swap by about 12 voters of those two and LSU should be sitting on top, and given USC’s near-loss yesterday, that isn’t hard to imagine.

2) California at #3 in the polls

With #3/4 Oklahoma, #4/3 Florida, and #5 West Virginia all losing, that clears the road for California to head into 3rd place in the polls. Now imagine this scenario: LSU loses to someone in the next 4 to 5 weeks. It isn’t difficult to imagine - they play Florida, Auburn, Kentucky, and Alabama - all capable of such an upset. That sets up a situation where the Nov. 10 game between USC and California could be a #1 vs. #2 match-up.

Even if LSU doesn’t lose, if both USC and Cal win all their games before November 10, it will decide who is either driving or riding in the front of the car as far as the national championship game is concerned

3) Kentucky in the Top 10?

This one will be a little harder to get, but it’s still quite possible. Kentucky needs to jump 4 spots to get to #10 in the rankings. They should jump at least 2 with Clemson and Rutgers losing ahead of them. However, that also means that #7 Texas and one of the 3rd through 5th ranked teams would have to fall enough. People thought a team from Kentucky would be hanging out in the Top 10. They just didn’t think it would be the one wearing blue.

4) Ohio State and Wisconsin

That November 3rd game between the Buckeyes and the Badgers suddenly got a lot more interesting now that those two teams will probably be ranked 4th and 5th after the polls are released. Of course, they’re biggest problem is the Big Ten, where the conference seems to be turning itself inside out with teams like Indiana and Illinois winning games (they’re a combined 8-2!) while other teams like Michigan and Penn State struggle.

5) Who will Win the Prize?

Despite the fact that we had 9 AP top-25 losses yesterday (10 in the coaches poll) , we’re only likely to see two teams in the AP (Alabama and Penn State) and 3 in the Coaches (add Michigan State) drop out of the top 25 because most of the other losses were by teams ranked so high that they probably won’t drop completely out of the rankings.

Purdue seems to be the logical first team to get into the AP rankings. They’re the first team out in that rankings, they’re already 25th in the coaches poll, and it seems that you gain a lot of spots whenevr you beat Notre Dame, no matter how good they are. So I think Purdue is probably a shoe-in for the AP poll.

Meanwhile, Arizona State seems like a shoe-in for the Coaches poll. They’re the first team out, they’re already ranked in the AP, and they just obliterated Stanford last night. That seems like the obvious first team to put in.

But what about the 2nd team? Next in line for the AP poll is Miami (FL). However, do voters really want to put a team who hasn’t had very many impressive wins, despite playing a cupcake schedule (sans Oklahoma and Texas A&M), and who had to play well into the 4th quarter before disposing of Duke, into the top 25?

The next best team would be UCLA, who has not only beaten someone, but beaten them convincingly. Their only splotch is their blowout to Utah. UCLA would be my guess for the 2nd team that gets into the rankings.

My sentimental favorite to get ranked would be Illinois, but they didn’t even receive any votes last week, so going from no-votes to ranked is quite a jump. They should get votes this week, however, and teams like UCF, Connecticut, Kansas, and Virginia will inch themselves ever closer to being ranked.

How about the coaches poll? I already said Arizona State was the obvious first pick. Cincinnati seems like an obvious 2nd pick to me as well. They’re next in line, they’re undefeated, and they’re already ranked in the AP poll. And guess who is next in line after them? UCLA. All too easy.

6) My Top 25

Finally, if I had to rank teams, here is how I would do it?

1. LSU
2. USC
3. California
4. Ohio State
5. Wisconsin
6. Boston College
7. Kentucky
8. Georgia
9. West Virginia
10. Oklahoma
11. Florida
12. South Florida
13. Oregon
14. Texas
15. South Carolina
16. Virginia Tech
17. Cincinnati
18. Hawaii
19. Missouri
20. Rutgers
21. Clemson
22. Arizona State
23. Nebraska
24. Purdue
25. UCLA